As the United States enters the fifth week of military operations in Iran, President Donald Trump faces mounting political pressure, with his approval rating dropping to 36% amid rising fuel prices and public unease over the conflict, according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll. The unfolding war has also thrust two of Trump’s top lieutenants—Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio—into the spotlight, highlighting their potential roles in the 2028 presidential succession.
Vance, 41, a former Marine with a reputation for caution on foreign interventions, has kept a measured public stance, reflecting his skepticism toward prolonged U.S. military involvement. Rubio, 54, has closely aligned with Trump’s hawkish policy, emerging as a vocal defender of the campaign. Trump has publicly stated that both men were involved in efforts to compel Iran to comply with U.S. demands regarding nuclear disarmament and free passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
With Trump barred from running again in 2028 due to term limits, the president has privately asked advisers which of the two—“JD or Marco?”—he should support, according to sources familiar with his thinking. Political analysts and Republican officials note that the outcome of the Iran conflict could shape their prospects: a swift, U.S.-favored resolution might boost Rubio, while a prolonged war could give Vance an opportunity to appeal to anti-war elements of the party without directly opposing Trump.
Vance, once a self-described “never-Trumper,” has increasingly aligned with the president’s policies while maintaining ideological differences. He won the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) straw poll with 53% of delegates favoring him as the next Republican nominee, with Rubio finishing second at 35%. Rubio has indicated he would not challenge Vance directly and might accept a running mate role, although any perceived weakness in Vance could shift Republican ambitions.
Trump’s relationship with both men remains strategically ambiguous. While some Republicans perceive signs of favoring Rubio, White House officials insist no endorsement has been made, emphasizing loyalty and team cohesion. Vance’s spokeswoman highlighted his pride in supporting Trump’s leadership, while Rubio’s team has stressed his strong professional and personal ties with the president.
The contrast between the two men was evident at a recent Cabinet meeting. Rubio delivered a vigorous defense of Trump’s Iran strategy, while Vance emphasized options to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, concluding with a message of support for U.S. troops. Republicans recognize that the Iran campaign’s outcome could carry significant political consequences, potentially defining the trajectory of Trump’s successors and shaping the party’s future.
