JPMorgan Chase ended its banking relationship with prediction-market platform Polymarket last year, citing regulatory concerns, in a move that highlights the continuing caution among major financial institutions towards an industry growing rapidly in the United States.
According to people familiar with the matter, JPMorgan notified Polymarket in October that it needed to find another bank. The platform has since established a relationship with a new lender, although its identity could not be determined. The development was reported by the Financial Times, which noted that the decision came while Polymarket remained subject to regulatory scrutiny in the US.
At the time JPMorgan made the decision, Polymarket was still prohibited from allowing US customers to use its platform following a 2022 enforcement action by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for operating an unregistered derivatives trading platform. The CFTC subsequently allowed the New York-based company to return to the US under the Trump administration, although the agency continues to investigate the platform.
JPMorgan’s relationship with Polymarket has nevertheless not disappeared entirely. The bank invited Polymarket chief executive Shayne Coplan to speak at a conference for wealthy private-banking clients in Miami in February, alongside former NFL star Tom Brady. People familiar with the situation said JPMorgan also wants to remain in contention for a potential underwriting role if Polymarket eventually seeks to list publicly.
That apparent contradiction reflects the complicated position of major banks towards prediction markets. Financial institutions may remain wary of the regulatory risks associated with the platforms while simultaneously recognising their growing commercial importance.
JPMorgan declined to comment. Polymarket said it continued to conduct business with the bank through other arrangements, describing its relationship with JPMorgan as close and active across multiple entities, operational integrations and the handling of customer funds.
The wider industry has faced mounting legal and regulatory challenges. More than a dozen US states have taken legal action against Polymarket and rival prediction-market operator Kalshi, accusing them of effectively operating unlawful sportsbooks. The companies reject that characterisation, arguing that they operate exchanges matching two sides of a contract rather than traditional bookmakers that take the opposite side of a wager.
The distinction has become increasingly important as prediction markets have expanded beyond conventional sporting events. Users can place positions on elections, political developments, economic indicators, commodity prices and other real-world events, creating a market in which almost any measurable outcome can become the subject of speculation.
The rapid growth has also raised concerns about whether people with privileged information can exploit prediction markets. In April, a US soldier involved in planning a January operation to seize Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro was charged with placing Polymarket wagers connected to the mission. Prosecutors alleged that the trades generated more than $400,000. The soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, pleaded not guilty.
The banking dispute also comes against the backdrop of a broader political fight over so-called “debanking” in the United States. Technology investors and cryptocurrency companies have argued that banks have sometimes denied financial services to businesses because of the perceived regulatory or political risks associated with their activities. The US government is investigating several major banks, including JPMorgan, over whether they have provided fair access to customers.
President Donald Trump has separately sued JPMorgan and its chief executive Jamie Dimon, alleging that the bank closed his accounts for political reasons. JPMorgan has rejected the allegations and said the lawsuit has no merit. Banks, meanwhile, argue that they operate under a regulatory framework that exposes them to significant legal and compliance risks when dealing with sensitive businesses.
Prediction markets have benefited from the broader expansion of legalised betting in the United States following a 2018 Supreme Court ruling that allowed individual states to legalise sports gambling. Their growth has since accelerated dramatically, with platforms offering contracts on subjects ranging from sports to elections and commodity prices.
User-compiled data cited by the Financial Times puts prediction markets at more than $250bn in notional trading volume so far in 2026. Polymarket is seeking to raise more than $1bn at a valuation of approximately $20bn, more than twice the roughly $8bn valuation it achieved in a 2025 fundraising round.
That ambition makes access to the traditional financial system increasingly important. Yet the JPMorgan episode illustrates the paradox facing Polymarket and its rivals: the more valuable and influential prediction markets become, the greater their need for established financial institutions — and the greater the regulatory risks that may make those institutions reluctant to embrace them fully.
