Quebec’s separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ) is leading polls ahead of the province’s October 5 election, putting the party on course for a possible return to power after more than a decade in opposition and reopening the question of Quebec’s independence from Canada.
The PQ has maintained a lead in recent surveys despite periods in which its support appeared to weaken. A Leger poll published on Monday put the party at 30%, ahead of the provincial Liberals on 26%, while the governing Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) had fallen to 16%. With support divided among several parties, the PQ could secure a majority in Quebec’s 127-seat legislature.
The party’s strength, however, does not necessarily indicate that a majority of Quebec voters are seeking independence. Valerie Gaudreau, a Quebec political expert and writer at Le Soleil, said the PQ’s rise was being driven principally by dissatisfaction with the incumbent provincial government, particularly over the cost of living. “The desire for change is stronger than the desire for independence,” she said.
PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, widely known as PSPP, has nevertheless made clear that his party remains committed to separating Quebec from Canada. During a leaders’ debate last week, he said the objective was for Quebec’s population “to survive in French” in a country that is overwhelmingly English-speaking and “to become a country”.
“That moment is coming,” he added.
PSPP has ruled out holding an independence referendum during the presidency of Donald Trump, arguing that the issue requires conditions that would allow for an informed and calm debate. Last month, he said a decision on independence should not be “hijacked by the upheavals of American politics, nor by the theatrics of an unpredictable president”. He has indicated that a referendum would not take place before 2029.
Opponents have sought to make separatism a central issue of the election campaign. Charles Milliard, the provincial Liberal leader, told the leaders’ debate: “We have to be honest: this election is a referendum.”
The prospect of a renewed separatist government comes as Canada faces wider tensions over its relationship with the United States. Canada has experienced a surge of patriotism in response to Trump’s trade war and threats of annexation. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has rallied national sentiment against Trump, remains popular in Quebec, while several recent polls cited in the source indicate that only about 30% of Quebec voters support leaving Canada.
Quebec has twice rejected independence in referendums, decisively in 1980 and by a very narrow margin in 1995. A new separatist challenge would also come shortly before a non-binding referendum in the oil-rich western province of Alberta on whether its population wants to leave Canada.
Carney has kept a low profile on the Alberta vote to avoid accusations of federal interference, according to Queen’s University political scientist Stephanie Chouinard. She said he did not want to “fan the flames” in Alberta or “feed these ideas in Quebec”.
At the same time, Carney has sought to demonstrate his commitment to Canada’s bilingual character. He said last month that trade talks with the Trump administration had been halted partly because Washington was seeking provisions that would weaken protections for the French language in online algorithms.
