China’s construction of a runway on Antelope Reef in the Paracels archipelago is well underway, with analysts estimating that the facility could be completed by the middle of 2027 and strengthen Beijing’s military reach in the disputed South China Sea.
Satellite images reviewed by reporters show grading work, gravel piles, concrete and compaction cranes operating at the site as construction progresses on what military attaches and security analysts describe as a potentially important offshore base. Images taken on September 25 by commercial satellite imagery provider Vantor also show a fully loaded gravel barge travelling towards a newly constructed wharf.
A completed base at Antelope Reef would represent China’s most significant military expansion in the South China Sea in a decade, according to the assessment in the source material. It would extend the operating range of Chinese naval vessels and military aircraft in a waterway that has become an increasingly militarised arena of competition between Beijing and the United States and its allies, particularly in relation to Taiwan.
“If Fiery Cross is the guide, I’d expect the runway paved in the first half of 2027 and a first landing by mid-2027, possibly earlier,” said Ben Lewis, founder of the open-source data platform PLATracker. He was referring to a 3-kilometre runway China built on Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in 2015.
“They’ve had 10 years to get faster at this,” Lewis said.
Lewis said he had not yet identified signs of excavation for possible ammunition and fuel storage, which would be required for a military facility of this scale.
China’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Beijing has also not acknowledged that it is constructing a new military base on Antelope Reef. Chinese state media have instead said the site will serve civilian purposes, including weather forecasting and maritime and scientific research.
Vantor imagery analysts and open-source intelligence tracker Damien Symon, who first highlighted dredging at the reef in early January, identified the construction cranes as equipment used to compact reclaimed or loose earth into foundations before paving.
Located in the northern part of the South China Sea, a future base at Antelope Reef could allow Chinese naval vessels and military aircraft to maintain longer deployments and could help protect the approaches to Hainan Island, where China maintains nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines.
The construction also comes amid activity on other nearby features. A report in late August said new installations had been observed on a smaller islet near Antelope Reef. Analysts have not yet definitively established the likely function of the three-pronged construction on Yagong Island.
The Paracel Islands are claimed by China, Vietnam and Taiwan. China took control of the islands after a brief battle in 1974, when its forces drove South Vietnamese forces from bases in the archipelago. Beijing has maintained control of the Paracels since then despite continued objections from Hanoi.
Vietnam’s foreign ministry and Taiwan’s defence and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to questions about the construction.
The progress at Antelope Reef comes as China this week confirmed the establishment of a new joint military support facility in neighbouring Laos, a development that could further expand Beijing’s presence in Southeast Asia.
