China, the world’s largest consumer of coal, has subtly revised its energy policy language, giving itself flexibility to continue increasing coal consumption through the end of the decade, Bloomberg reports.
In a communiqué released Tuesday, the Chinese Communist Party stated that coal and oil use would “seek a peak” during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, spanning 2026 to 2030. This wording contrasts with a 2021 speech by President Xi Jinping, in which he pledged to phase down coal consumption over the same timeframe. Analysts say the change in phrasing leaves open the possibility that coal use could peak as late as 2030, rather than mandating an earlier reduction.
“While on the one hand, it’s good that the peak language for coal and oil made it into the proposal at this level, it doesn’t specify when exactly this peak would happen over the next five years,” said Belinda Schäpe, a China policy analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. “It could leave room for more growth, compared to the previous pledge to reduce coal consumption.”
The shift comes amid a broader transformation in China’s coal sector. Following a series of widespread power shortages in 2021, caused largely by coal shortages, Beijing responded by dramatically boosting domestic mining and coal imports—even as investment in solar and wind energy accelerated. The government’s dual approach reflects a balancing act between ensuring energy security and supporting the nation’s rapid renewable expansion.
Coal’s role in the energy mix is evolving. Renewable energy growth is gradually displacing coal in power generation, with electricity output from the fuel falling 2.4% in the first nine months of 2025, according to the China Electricity Council. At the same time, coal is increasingly being repurposed for chemical production, fuel conversion, and industrial feedstocks.
“In particular, we’re seeing growth in the chemicals sector, which was the largest driver of coal consumption this year,” Schäpe said. She added that continued expansion in industrial coal use could complicate China’s ability to meet its 2030 climate targets.
Experts caution that the softer language does not signal a long-term retreat from decarbonization. Gang He, an associate professor at Stony Brook University, said, “Coal’s share in China’s electricity generation is set to fall to about half by 2030 from 58% in 2024. So while the 15th Five-Year Plan’s language of ‘peaking coal consumption’ may sound softer than Xi’s 2021 pledge to ‘reduce coal consumption,’ it reflects a managed transition—recognizing coal’s diminishing but still critical role in maintaining grid stability as renewables expand rapidly.”
Yao Zhe, a policy analyst with Greenpeace East Asia, added that even Xi’s 2021 remarks allowed room for interpretation. “Back then, people had a more optimistic interpretation,” she said. “The peak could have been anywhere between 2026 and 2030. This new statement simply formalizes what was always possible.”
China’s approach highlights the delicate balancing act Beijing faces: securing reliable energy for its industrial base while simultaneously pursuing ambitious climate commitments. Analysts note that the government’s careful phrasing may also provide political cover to navigate domestic coal industry pressures, ensuring energy availability without compromising long-term decarbonization goals.
As the world’s largest coal user and emitter, China’s energy policy decisions will have significant global implications. Bloomberg reports that the flexibility in coal planning may slow the pace of global emissions reductions while giving China time to expand renewables, modernize its energy grid, and ensure stability in its industrial sector.
While the long-term trajectory remains toward reduced coal dependence, the message from Beijing underscores that the transition is expected to be gradual and strategic rather than abrupt—a recognition that, for now, coal remains an indispensable part of China’s energy landscape.
