China has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles into newly constructed silo fields near its northern border, according to a draft Pentagon report that underscores the pace and scale of Beijing’s military expansion and casts doubt on prospects for future arms control negotiations. The assessment, seen by Reuters, paints a picture of a rapidly modernizing nuclear force and a leadership in Beijing that appears unwilling to engage in meaningful dialogue on limiting its arsenal.
The report comes at a moment of heightened global anxiety over nuclear risks, as major powers modernize their deterrents and long-standing arms control frameworks continue to erode. While China has long maintained that its nuclear posture is purely defensive and far smaller than those of the United States and Russia, U.S. officials now say Beijing is expanding its stockpile faster than any other nuclear-armed nation.
According to the draft report, China has likely loaded more than 100 solid-fueled DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missiles into silos located close to the border with Mongolia. The Pentagon had previously disclosed the existence of several large silo fields in this region, identified through satellite imagery, but this is the first time a U.S. defense assessment has suggested how many missiles may already be deployed there. The report does not identify specific targets for the newly emplaced missiles, and U.S. officials cautioned that the document could still be revised before being formally submitted to lawmakers.
The Pentagon and China’s embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Reuters. Beijing has consistently rejected claims of a major nuclear buildup, arguing that such reports are designed to “smear and defame China and deliberately mislead the international community.” Chinese officials also reiterate that the country adheres to a no-first-use nuclear policy and maintains its forces at the minimum level required for national security.
Despite those assurances, the draft Pentagon report suggests that China’s actions tell a different story. It states that Beijing shows “no appetite” for arms control measures or broader strategic stability talks, even as its nuclear capabilities grow. “We continue to see no appetite from Beijing for pursuing such measures or more comprehensive arms control discussions,” the report says, casting doubt on recent speculation that China might be drawn into trilateral negotiations with the United States and Russia.
That skepticism contrasts with comments made last month by U.S. President Donald Trump, who said he might be working on a plan to pursue denuclearization talks with both China and Russia. Trump has argued that future arms control efforts must include Beijing, given the scale of its military modernization. The Pentagon’s assessment, however, suggests that any such initiative would face significant resistance from China, which has historically argued that its far smaller arsenal exempts it from the kinds of limits imposed on Washington and Moscow.
The report estimates that China’s nuclear warhead stockpile stood in the low 600s in 2024, reflecting what it described as a slower rate of production compared with earlier years. Even so, the Pentagon projects that Beijing is on track to possess more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, a threshold that would represent a dramatic shift in the global nuclear balance. If realized, that expansion would narrow the gap between China and the two largest nuclear powers, the United States and Russia, each of which deploys thousands of warheads.
U.S. defense officials and analysts say the construction of large silo fields marks a fundamental change in China’s nuclear posture. For decades, Beijing relied on a relatively small number of mobile missiles and submarines to ensure a survivable second-strike capability. The move toward fixed silos, combined with road-mobile launchers and sea-based deterrents, suggests a more complex and resilient nuclear force designed to withstand a first strike and still retaliate.
Beyond the nuclear dimension, the draft Pentagon report offers a sweeping assessment of China’s broader military ambitions. It states that Beijing believes it will be capable of fighting and winning a war over Taiwan by the end of 2027, a timeline that aligns with previous U.S. warnings about the pace of China’s preparations. Taiwan, a democratically governed island that China claims as its own territory, remains one of the most dangerous flashpoints in global geopolitics.
China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control and has stepped up military pressure on the island in recent years through large-scale exercises, air incursions and naval maneuvers. According to the Pentagon report, Beijing is refining a range of military options to achieve reunification, including what it describes as “brute force” scenarios. These could involve strikes at distances of 1,500 to 2,000 nautical miles from China’s shores, potentially threatening U.S. forces and bases across the Asia-Pacific region.
“In sufficient volume, these strikes could seriously challenge and disrupt U.S. presence in or around a conflict in the Asia-Pacific region,” the report warns. Such capabilities would complicate any American effort to intervene militarily in a Taiwan contingency and raise the stakes for regional allies such as Japan and the Philippines.
The assessment also highlights the interconnection between China’s conventional and nuclear modernization. U.S. officials have long argued that advances in long-range conventional missiles, space-based surveillance and cyber capabilities can blur the line between nuclear and non-nuclear conflict, increasing the risk of miscalculation. The expansion of silo-based ICBMs adds another layer of complexity, particularly in a crisis where early-warning systems and command-and-control structures could be under stress.
China insists that its nuclear strategy remains one of self-defense and deterrence. Officials point to the country’s long-standing pledge not to use nuclear weapons first and argue that its modernization is a response to changes in the global security environment, including advances in U.S. missile defenses and conventional strike capabilities. Beijing also notes that the United States continues to invest heavily in its own nuclear forces and, under Trump, has signaled interest in resuming nuclear weapons testing, though it remains unclear what form that would take.
For arms control advocates, the Pentagon report underscores the urgency of finding new frameworks to manage strategic competition among the world’s major powers. With existing treaties fraying and trust in short supply, the prospect of an unconstrained nuclear buildup by three rival states raises fears of a new arms race reminiscent of the Cold War, but without the stabilizing mechanisms that eventually emerged between Washington and Moscow.
The report’s conclusions are likely to fuel debate in Congress and among U.S. allies about how to respond to China’s growing military power. Some lawmakers argue that the United States must accelerate its own modernization programs and strengthen deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. Others warn that an unchecked buildup risks locking all sides into a cycle of escalation that could prove difficult to reverse.
For now, the Pentagon’s draft assessment suggests that Washington sees little near-term prospect of persuading Beijing to slow its nuclear expansion or join formal arms control talks. As Reuters reported, the document portrays a China that is confident in its trajectory, focused on preparing for potential conflict over Taiwan, and largely unmoved by diplomatic overtures aimed at restraining the world’s most destructive weapons.
