The US and Russia have begun negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, sidelining European leaders and triggering an emergency meeting in Paris to discuss the future of European security. According to the Financial Times, President Emmanuel Macron has invited key European figures, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Premier Donald Tusk, to strategize on how to support Ukraine and maintain European defense autonomy.
The urgency comes after former US President Donald Trump shocked European capitals by agreeing with Vladimir Putin to initiate peace talks. The discussions will formally begin in Saudi Arabia, where Trump’s Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to lay the groundwork for a potential Trump-Putin summit.
European officials are deeply concerned about being left out of negotiations that could reshape the continent’s security landscape. Finnish President Alexander Stubb told the FT, “This is the beginning of the beginning. Things are definitely moving… Are Europe’s tectonic plates shifting?”
European Defense at a Crossroads
The Paris summit will explore strategies for strengthening European defense, particularly in the face of uncertainty about future US involvement. One controversial proposal involves deploying European troops to Ukraine as a “reassurance force” stationed behind a potential ceasefire line. However, there is uncertainty over whether the US would provide external support to a NATO-led force.
European governments are also debating how to respond to a US request for specifics on weapons, financial aid, and peacekeeping troops they would be willing to commit to a post-war Ukraine. Some officials argue that the response should be collective rather than individual commitments from each country.
Divisions Within the US Negotiating Team
European diplomats have been closely analyzing the internal dynamics of Trump’s negotiating team. While retired General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, has taken a hard stance against Russia, other members of the team, including Rubio, appear less aligned. In discussions with G7 foreign ministers in Munich, Rubio reportedly avoided detailing the US position, focusing instead on logistical planning for a Trump-Putin summit.
This uncertainty has left European officials scrambling to prepare for all possible outcomes. One senior diplomat told the FT, “It’s insane how fast this is moving… All [Europe] must do is give Ukraine as much as possible so that it can better say ‘no’ to things rammed down its throat [by the US and Russia].”
Russia’s Optimism About the Talks
Russia has responded positively to Trump’s decision to initiate talks. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described it as a “powerful signal” and criticized the Biden administration’s previous approach, which he characterized as “war without end.” He also warned that Russia would not be “seduced by any false promises” during negotiations with the US.
Europe’s Fight for Influence
With the US and Russia driving the peace talks, European leaders face a critical moment in defining their role. As the FT reports, Macron’s summit in Paris is not just about Ukraine—it’s about ensuring that Europe has a seat at the table when decisions are made about its own security. While some leaders hope to align their proposals with American interests, others fear that Europe must take more independent action to protect its sovereignty.
With negotiations moving quickly, the coming weeks could determine whether Europe remains a key player in shaping Ukraine’s future or is relegated to the sidelines as Washington and Moscow decide the next steps.
