U.S. and Israeli discussions about regime change targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have been acknowledged by top analysts as unlikely to succeed and potentially counterproductive. Ray Takeyh, an Iran expert at the Council on Foreign Relations—a prominent pro-Israel think tank—told the Wall Street Journal that removing Khamenei would likely shift power toward Iran’s military forces, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He warned that “those in charge will be the men with guns,” who would still attempt to maintain some form of clerical leadership to preserve the Islamic Republic’s religious foundation.
Ali Alfoneh of the Arab Gulf States Institute echoed these concerns, noting that millions of Iranians rely on the IRGC for vital economic aid and social services. Alfoneh emphasized the IRGC’s capability to fight and win a civil war, even against opposition groups supported by Israel and the U.S., signaling that regime change efforts could strengthen, rather than weaken, Iran’s military resistance.
Adding to the complex dynamics, representatives from Iran’s minority Christian, Jewish, Zoroastrian, and Mandaean communities issued a joint statement condemning recent U.S. and Israeli threats against Khamenei’s life. They stressed that such attacks would be viewed as assaults on the religious beliefs and emotions of hundreds of millions of people. The statement also warned that if the threat were deemed imminent, Iran would have a “legitimate right to preemptive self-defense under international legal standards.”
Iran’s significant religious minority populations, including the fourth largest Christian and second-largest Jewish communities in the Middle East, have voiced opposition to Israel’s military actions. This week, major Jewish institutions within Iran condemned Israel’s “savage” aggression and urged Tehran to respond forcefully to make Israel “repent its shameful deeds.”
The growing consensus among experts and religious communities alike is that efforts to oust Khamenei could backfire by empowering Iran’s hardline military factions and uniting the country against external threats.
