The helicopters began arriving over the southern shores of Lake Geneva as thousands of demonstrators gathered outside the tightly secured perimeter of the summit venue in Évian-les-Bains. Yet even before the first world leaders touched down, the agenda of the Group of Seven summit had already been transformed.
Hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron at the luxury Hôtel Royal overlooking the lake, this year’s G7 gathering was initially expected to focus on the growing challenge posed by China, the future of economic competitiveness, and the accelerating race to dominate artificial intelligence. Instead, a surprise ceasefire and nuclear agreement announced between the United States and Iran has abruptly shifted the summit’s center of gravity toward the Middle East.
For Macron, whose presidential term ends in 2027, the two-day meeting represents one of his final opportunities to shape global discussions on the largest international stage. But as leaders from the United States, Canada, Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Japan arrived for an informal dinner ahead of the official opening, attention quickly turned to Washington’s unexpected diplomatic breakthrough with Tehran.
The agreement, reportedly reached through Pakistani mediation, has injected new urgency into discussions among Western allies eager to understand its details and implications. European leaders are expected to seek a firsthand explanation from U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration negotiated the arrangement after months of regional tensions.
While the agreement includes Iranian commitments regarding nuclear weapons, European governments are particularly focused on another issue: the future of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important shipping routes.
European officials have expressed concern that Iran could attempt to exert greater influence over passage through the narrow waterway, potentially affecting international trade and energy markets. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz publicly emphasized the issue before the summit, declaring that the Strait of Hormuz must remain permanently open and accessible to free navigation.
Should the ceasefire prove durable, European governments are prepared to move beyond diplomatic support. According to discussions preceding the summit, several countries are considering contributions to a broader security framework designed to help safeguard the agreement and maintain freedom of navigation in the region.
Germany, Britain and France have already indicated their willingness to assist with stabilization efforts. Potential contributions include mine-clearing operations, reconnaissance capabilities and logistical support aimed at protecting commercial shipping lanes. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa are also expected to participate in discussions surrounding the implementation of the agreement and the European Union’s role in supporting it.
For Berlin, any military contribution would require parliamentary approval, reflecting Germany’s constitutional requirements for overseas military deployments. Nevertheless, European officials view participation in post-agreement security measures as an opportunity to demonstrate greater responsibility within the Western alliance.
That message carries particular significance ahead of the NATO summit scheduled for early July in Ankara. Relations between Washington and European capitals have experienced periods of strain in recent years, particularly over defense spending and burden-sharing. Trump has repeatedly argued that Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own security, increasing pressure on European governments to boost military capabilities and strengthen the alliance’s European pillar.
The Middle East is not the only region commanding attention at Évian-les-Bains. Leaders from several key Gulf states, including Egypt, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, have joined discussions because of the broader implications of the Iran agreement. Beyond energy markets, the conflict has disrupted fertilizer shipments and raised concerns about food security in multiple regions, adding another layer of complexity to the summit’s agenda.
Even before the Middle East unexpectedly moved to the forefront, concerns about China had been expected to dominate private conversations among G7 leaders. Unlike formal international gatherings that include Beijing, the G7 provides Western governments with a forum to discuss economic competition and trade policies without Chinese participation.
Growing unease over China’s industrial policies has intensified across Europe. Officials are increasingly concerned about what they view as aggressive export strategies, extensive state subsidies and efforts to gain dominance in critical sectors through low-cost competition. Access to strategic raw materials and supply chains is also expected to feature prominently in discussions.
Germany’s position has drawn particular attention. Berlin has historically favored a more cautious approach toward Beijing due to the importance of the Chinese market for German industry. Recent signals from Chancellor Merz’s government, however, suggest a willingness to support tougher measures if necessary, even as policymakers remain wary of potential economic consequences.
Another major question hanging over the summit concerns Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to participate in discussions at a time when diplomatic efforts between Washington and Moscow have shown little visible progress.
The apparent lack of movement in U.S.-Russia contacts has encouraged European governments to explore a more active diplomatic role. In recent weeks, discussions have reportedly included consideration of whether a European leader could serve as an intermediary between Kyiv and Moscow.
Yet any meaningful progress would depend on maintaining unity between the United States and Europe, a goal complicated by a separate dispute that surfaced just before the summit.
Washington’s decision to restrict allied access to advanced artificial intelligence models developed by Anthropic has generated frustration across Europe. The move was widely criticized by European officials, who viewed it as an unexpected and unilateral action by a close partner.
The disagreement threatens to spill into one of the summit’s most closely watched sessions. On Wednesday, G7 leaders are scheduled to meet with leading figures from the artificial intelligence sector, including OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman, Mistral co-founder Arthur Mensch, and Anthropic chief executive Dario Amodei. The gathering was originally envisioned as a discussion about innovation, competitiveness and the future of AI governance. Now it may also become a venue for airing concerns about access, cooperation and technological sovereignty.
Adding another element of uncertainty is the question of whether Trump will remain for the summit’s conclusion. Last year, the U.S. president unexpectedly departed a major international gathering before its scheduled end, and speculation about a similar move has circulated among diplomats attending the summit.
The possibility of an early departure appears to have influenced Macron’s diplomatic planning. Following the summit, the French president has invited Trump to a state dinner at the Palace of Versailles. Officially, the event is intended to commemorate the approaching 250th anniversary of American independence and the historic French role in recognizing it.
As leaders gather beside Lake Geneva, the summit’s challenge has become increasingly clear. What began as a forum focused on China, trade imbalances and emerging technologies has evolved into a test of Western coordination across multiple fronts: a fragile Iran agreement, the future of transatlantic security, unresolved questions surrounding Ukraine, and intensifying competition in the global technology race.
Whether the world’s leading industrial democracies can emerge with a unified position on all those issues may prove to be the defining question of the summit itself.
