The iconic image of sheep-dotted hills across New Zealand is fading as the country’s sheep population plummets to its lowest levels in over 170 years. With just over four sheep per person—down from 22 in 1982—the decline marks a seismic shift for a nation once synonymous with its abundant sheep farming industry.
As The Times reported, New Zealand’s sheep numbers have been steadily decreasing for decades, driven by a combination of economic pressures, changing land use, and adverse weather conditions. The global peak of synthetic fabrics has drastically undercut wool prices, while fierce competition in the lamb export market has eroded profitability.
In 1982, New Zealand’s sheep flock reached a record 70 million. Today, that number has dwindled to just 23.3 million, a stark contrast for a country of 5.3 million people. Farmers have increasingly turned to more lucrative alternatives like dairy farming, forestry for carbon credits, and viticulture.
Toby Williams, a fifth-generation sheep farmer from Gisborne, North Island, is among those feeling the pinch. In his interview with The Times, Williams detailed how the costs of shearing and maintenance often outweigh the returns from wool. “Sheep are hard work. They need shearing, and they’re more prone to disease than cattle,” he said. Last year, he spent NZ$80,000 (£37,000) on shearing, recovering only half of that from wool sales.
The decline of the sheep industry began in the late 1980s after the government removed farming subsidies. It worsened in the early 2000s with the dairy cattle boom, which saw vast tracts of pasture converted for milk production. More recently, extreme weather events and rising costs for feed, fertilizer, and labor—exacerbated by the pandemic and the Ukraine war—have further squeezed farmers.
Richard Dawkins, a third-generation farmer in Marlborough, South Island, exemplifies the shift in land use. His family has converted 330 acres of pasture into vineyards to produce Marlborough’s renowned sauvignon blanc. “The last two years have been the most difficult I’ve farmed through, while viticulture has really taken off,” Dawkins told The Times. Grapes, he noted, can yield NZ$20,000 per hectare of net income, compared to just NZ$500-$600 for sheep farming.
Adverse weather has also taken a toll. Severe droughts in the Marlborough and Canterbury regions and unseasonal snowstorms in the South Island have led to higher lamb mortality rates and a drop in breeding ewes. In the past two years alone, New Zealand’s sheep flock has declined by two million, according to The Times.
Despite these challenges, lamb remains New Zealand’s second-largest export after dairy. However, the country is losing ground to Australia, which boasts a booming sheep population of 79 million—the highest since 2007. Last year, Australia exported a record 614,327 tonnes of lamb and mutton, further solidifying its dominance in global trade. Together, Australia and New Zealand account for 70 percent of global sheep meat exports, leaving the United Kingdom a distant third.
Not all changes have been negative for New Zealand’s farmers. The new center-right government, led by Christopher Luxon, recently scrapped a proposed “burp tax” on methane emissions from livestock. Initiated under former Labour Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, the tax was intended to address climate change but faced backlash from farmers who argued it would devastate an already struggling industry.
