A potential meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as a key diplomatic event ahead of this year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju, South Korea. According to multiple sources cited by the South China Morning Post, the APEC gathering — scheduled from October 30 to November 1 — may provide the most realistic opportunity in 2025 for the two leaders to meet face-to-face. Trump could travel to China before the summit or hold bilateral talks with Xi on the sidelines of the multilateral event.
While Xi’s attendance at APEC has been reported by South Korean media, Trump’s participation remains unconfirmed. However, officials from both countries appear to be laying the groundwork for a summit. Earlier this month, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held their first in-person meeting — a move widely interpreted as a sign of warming diplomatic intentions. The two presidents also spoke by phone last month and exchanged invitations to visit each other’s countries, underscoring a shared interest in improving ties after a rocky start to Trump’s second term.
Since returning to office in January, Trump has taken a tough stance on China, including threats of tariffs up to 145 percent on Chinese goods. However, relations have softened slightly in recent months. Both sides agreed to a preliminary trade deal that loosened Chinese restrictions on rare-earth exports and eased certain U.S. barriers on technology trade. Trump’s administration also made headlines by authorizing U.S. chipmaker Nvidia to sell artificial intelligence processors to China — a move that some analysts view as a diplomatic olive branch.
Despite these developments, tensions remain high over the Taiwan issue — the most sensitive and potentially disruptive topic in U.S.-China relations. Beijing, which views Taiwan as a breakaway province, has strongly condemned reports that Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te will transit through the United States en route to visits in Latin America. Analysts warn that if the U.S. grants Lai a high-profile reception or if provocative incidents occur during his transit, it could derail the fragile goodwill built between Washington and Beijing in recent months.
Observers say a Trump-Xi meeting would offer both symbolic and practical value. Chinese analysts argue it would help stabilize the relationship and give Xi an opportunity to seek commitments from Trump on issues such as U.S. export controls and Taiwan. According to Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Beijing sees a summit as a chance to press Trump for assurances that the U.S. does not support Taiwanese independence and to encourage support for peaceful reunification.
Experts also believe Trump has a stronger incentive to meet Xi than vice versa. Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, noted that Trump would “be on a plane to Beijing tomorrow if he could,” while China prefers careful protocol and tightly scripted outcomes. This asymmetry, analysts suggest, may give China a diplomatic edge in shaping the meeting’s framework and outcomes.
Further signs of a possible summit include additional bilateral meetings, especially between Wang and Rubio, and working-level cooperation on issues like fentanyl trafficking, export controls, and rare-earth materials. Some speculate that Beijing may even suspend sanctions on Rubio, which were imposed over his past criticism of China’s policies in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, as a temporary face-saving measure if he visits the country.
Despite cautious optimism, analysts warn that the summit remains vulnerable to disruption. “The summit will be well telegraphed in advance,” Chan said. “But all it would take would be one slip-up along the way to derail the whole thing.” Chinese experts agree, emphasizing that any perceived U.S. interference in Taiwan could seriously jeopardize summit preparations.
Still, some believe the momentum is moving in the right direction. Tsinghua University professor Chen Qi said that while relations have fluctuated in recent months, both sides are working toward creating a conducive atmosphere for a leaders’ meeting. He noted that a successful meeting could lead to progress on specific issues that Trump prioritizes, such as trade and export restrictions, helping to foster further cooperation.
As October approaches, the Gyeongju APEC summit may become a focal point in the evolving U.S.-China relationship. Whether the Trump-Xi meeting materializes could depend as much on geopolitical maneuvering as on the willingness of both sides to avoid provocations — particularly over Taiwan — and focus instead on building a more stable and pragmatic foundation for dialogue.
