Donald Trump’s return to power has transformed South Asian politics. The United States has long regarded India as a strategic ally because it joined the QUAD alliance to pursue specific goals in the Asia Pacific. However, this established perception is about to change, as Donald Trump has been highlighting India’s efforts to maintain a balance between Washington and Russia.
The President of the United States (POTUS) warned India about its policies to destabilize Pakistan and for oil dealings with Russia, as this could undermine Washington’s leverage. Such a policy indicates a weak diplomatic approach by New Delhi, as its self-reliance policy is at odds with domestic vulnerabilities.
Today, the POTUS’s policies and rhetoric have changed the established narratives of viewing India as a strategic partner and of reminding the World that strategic partnership must rest on transparency, and have condemned the deception in enduring relations.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) domestic policy stands in sharp contrast to its pursuit of enduring strategic objectives. Democracy at the state level has no meaning when it does not exist at the societal level. Reports by the United Nations special Rapporteurs, the European Parliament, and Amnesty International have repeatedly highlighted the discriminatory laws and systemic violence against Muslims in the state. It has been on the record that, through legislation, the anti-conversion laws to demolish minorities’ homes were justified.
According to international watchdogs, such a step will create communal rifts, undermine democratic image, and result in long-term instability. Such a policy affects the self-proclaimed status of the World’s largest democracy by creating a contrast that undermines its efforts to project soft power on the global stage.
Amidst the Russia-Ukraine war, the U.S., along with Europe, imposed sanctions on Russia and froze its assets worth $ 300 billion in European banks. Despite sanctions, India managed to procure the crude oil deal with Russia, with over 1.9 million barrels per day. The trade deal was a direct threat to Washington’s leverage and imposed additional sanctions, affecting India’s refineries and suppliers.
Though it was a diplomatic maneuver to balance the economy with Russia and to remain in the West’s strategic camp for the acquisition of defence technology, the strategy was apparent. It prompted the U.S. to pay attention to its dual policy.
In 2024, India managed $79.44 billion in exports to the U.S., but it still seeks tariff relief from Washington to advance its economic agenda of Atmanirbhar Bharat, or a self-reliant India. India loses $6 billion annually under the GSP program, exposing the complexities of global trade.
Since 2007, EU-India trade negotiations have been on hold due to high tariffs on European imports and the lack of fair access to India’s market, despite its large consumer base. The. The U.S. imposition of 25% tariffs on India was a counter response and an awakening call to New Delhi that it is still dependent on the Western market. There is no absolute gain in the relations, and the POTUS has exposed the contradiction between India’s domestic narrative and its pursuit of self-reliance ambitions.
Securing national interest is the foremost goal of every state. Moreover, it is now a trial for India’s diplomatic aperture. Although it is worth mentioning that self-reliance and economic sovereignty are possible with the support of its people, there are many grievances and fault lines in India’s ethnography. These issues persistently affect India’s posture on the global stage.
It would not be inappropriate to argue that India is now at a crossroads. As the world order shifts, India must decide whether to lean toward economic ties with Russia or to deepen strategic relations with Western allies.
