In the hours leading up to the unprecedented U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Central Intelligence Agency assessed that eliminating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would not guarantee a shift toward moderation. Sources familiar with the intelligence reports said the CIA concluded that hardline elements from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would likely fill any leadership vacuum, potentially entrenching Tehran’s most conservative military and clerical factions.
The assessment, prepared over the past two weeks, explored multiple scenarios following a U.S. military intervention, focusing on how such operations could trigger regime change in the Islamic Republic. Officials emphasized that while the analysis outlined potential outcomes, no scenario could be predicted with certainty. The CIA declined to comment on the reports.
The IRGC, an elite military force dedicated to safeguarding Shi’ite clerical rule in Iran, is widely regarded as a stabilizing backbone for the regime. Intelligence sources said its influence would make any succession following Khamenei’s removal heavily skewed toward hardliners, potentially undermining Washington’s broader strategic goals.
President Donald Trump, speaking in a Saturday morning video address, characterized Iran as a “terrorist regime” and called on Iranian citizens to rise against their government. He suggested that the U.S. strikes were designed to set the stage for internal upheaval, reflecting an administration increasingly focused on promoting regime change.
The decision to act came after weeks of internal debate over whether a strike could follow the deadly December protests in Iran. U.S. officials attempted to negotiate a nuclear deal with Tehran in the interim, seeking to avert direct military action, but Geneva talks ended without agreement.
According to sources, Secretary of State Marco Rubio briefed the congressional Gang of Eight last week, indicating that a U.S. operation was imminent but subject to change depending on developments in nuclear diplomacy. Late Friday, Rubio informed lawmakers that the strike was likely to begin within hours, although the president retained the final authority to halt or adjust the plan.
Analysts warn that while the strikes target Iran’s capabilities and leadership, the CIA’s assessment underscores a critical risk: instead of weakening Tehran, the intervention could consolidate power in the hands of the IRGC, potentially making the regime more intransigent and less susceptible to external influence.
