It is highly unlikely, unfortunately, that the ceasefire agreement brokered by Pakistan will endure. This is due to two principal impediments.
First, Israel is adamantly opposed to a cessation of the bombing of Iran’s infrastructure. This bombing campaign is part of the Israeli effort to turn Iran into a failed state. Israel has the ability to sabotage the agreement. Indeed, Israel is already doing so by refusing to halt its attacks on Lebanon.
Secondly, the minimal demands being made by Iran remain unacceptable to the U.S. and Israel. The demands will only be achieved by creating more pressure, which Iran can generate by continuing to block oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and targeting vital infrastructure in the region.
Iran is demanding a permanent and formalized end to hostilities, control of the Strait of Hormuz, an end to Israeli attacks in Lebanon, a withdrawal of U.S. military bases in the region, reparations for war damage, the right to carry out nuclear enrichment and the lifting of all sanctions on Iran.
I don’t see Iran backing down on these demands, especially as it has the ability to force the U.S. through prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz to concede. This means more war and a strangulation of the global economy.
This is Iran’s war to win. And the Iranian regime knows it.
