Japan is preparing a major overhaul of its national security strategy, seeking to strengthen its ability to deter military threats, sustain prolonged conflict and reduce vulnerabilities to economic pressure from China. Analysts say the proposed changes could complicate Beijing’s military calculations but also increase the risk of confrontation across East Asia.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, began working-level discussions this week on revisions to three key security documents, which are expected to receive Cabinet approval in December. The changes would update the National Security Strategy, National Defence Strategy and Defence Build-up Programme adopted in 2022.
The proposed measures include expanding the use of unmanned systems, developing long-range missiles, strengthening integrated air and missile defences and improving the Self-Defence Forces’ (SDF) ability to sustain extended military operations. Tokyo also plans to improve coordination between the ground, maritime and air branches, while introducing an advanced artificial intelligence-based decision-making system at the SDF’s Joint Operations Command, according to the Yomiuri newspaper.
A central objective is to acquire capabilities that could prevent an adversary from achieving its military objectives, particularly around Japan’s southwestern islands, which are close to Taiwan. These islands could become strategically important in a conflict involving China and the United States over Taiwan.
Japan is also considering closer defence-industrial cooperation with Washington, including potentially expanding weapons production through government-owned, privately operated factories. Plans to reorganise military commands and units are intended to address persistent personnel shortages and strengthen staffing in frontline formations.
The scale of the proposed expansion remains under discussion. According to a Reuters report earlier this month, citing people familiar with the matter, Japan is considering a defence programme worth between 70 trillion yen and 80 trillion yen (US$437 billion to US$500 billion) for the 2027-2031 financial years, compared with approximately 43 trillion yen under the current programme. Policymakers are also considering a study of nuclear-powered submarines, although no decision has been made to acquire them.
China has repeatedly criticised Japan’s planned revisions. On November 5, the Chinese Foreign Ministry accused Tokyo of using China as a pretext for military expansion and accelerating its remilitarisation.
Misato Matsuoka, an associate professor at Teikyo University, said Japan wanted to undermine Beijing’s confidence that it could achieve its objectives through “a relatively limited use of military force or economic pressure”. She said stronger Japanese capabilities could disrupt Chinese maritime and air operations in the East China Sea and allow Tokyo to influence a Taiwan contingency even without directly participating in combat.
Michael Bosack, director of the Parley Policy Institute and a former US-Japan alliance manager, said Japan was drawing lessons from Ukraine’s defence against Russia, while recognising that China was also adapting its military approach. The revisions could improve Japan’s ability to “frustrate Chinese military actions”, he said, but their effectiveness would depend on which side could translate policy into “real-world capabilities”.
Chinese analysts have warned that the proposed changes could expand Japan’s involvement in a Taiwan conflict. Lian Degui, director of the Centre for Japanese Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, said Tokyo’s refusal to withdraw Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November 2025 remarks suggesting that a Taiwan contingency could trigger Japanese military intervention indicated its intention to follow Washington’s approach to cross-strait affairs.
Xu Weijun, an associate research professor at the Institute of Public Policy at South China University of Technology in Guangzhou, said Japan’s potential role could extend beyond surveillance, missile defence and logistical support for US forces to independent long-range military operations.
Alongside its military expansion, Tokyo plans to incorporate “collective resilience” into its revised National Security Strategy, according to Kyodo News. The initiative would involve working with like-minded and developing countries to diversify supplies of critical minerals, energy and food through development assistance and trade arrangements.
Matsuoka said Japan wanted to prevent Beijing from assuming that economic dependencies could be converted into “political leverage”. However, she warned that stronger Japanese defences could prompt Chinese military countermeasures. “Deterrence may be necessary, but it cannot substitute for diplomacy or address the underlying political disagreements between the two countries,” she said.
