Economists are revising China’s trade forecasts after a sharp and unexpected surge in imports driven by the global artificial intelligence boom, forcing a rethink of how the world’s second-largest economy fits into global supply chains. New projections suggest China’s import growth will accelerate faster than exports for the first time since 2021, preventing its trade surplus from expanding significantly beyond last year’s record levels.
According to a Bloomberg survey of 17 economists, Chinese imports are expected to rise by 5 per cent in 2026, the strongest pace in five years and more than double previous estimates made earlier this year. This rebound is being powered largely by surging demand for high-end semiconductors and advanced manufacturing equipment required for AI development, marking a structural shift in China’s external demand pattern after years of stagnation and decline in imports.
At the same time, export growth is also being revised upward to 4.9 per cent, reflecting resilient global demand for Chinese goods, particularly in sectors tied to green technology such as electric vehicles and solar panels. Despite this dual growth, China is still projected to maintain a massive goods surplus of just over US$1.2 trillion, only marginally higher than in 2025, signaling a plateau after years of rapid expansion.
The import surge is closely linked to the global AI investment cycle, which is expected to reach US$2.5 trillion this year. China’s manufacturers are aggressively importing advanced chips, many of which come from Taiwan and South Korea, as domestic consumption remains relatively weak. This imbalance is reinforcing concerns raised by international institutions that China’s economy is contributing to widening global trade distortions.
Recent data highlights the scale of this shift. In early 2026, imports surged by 23 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, while exports rose by 15 per cent. A significant portion of import growth has been driven by semiconductor demand, with the value of integrated circuit imports rising sharply due to both higher volumes and rising global chip prices. Economists estimate that these components alone accounted for nearly a third of total import growth in recent months.
Beyond AI, several other macroeconomic factors are supporting import growth. A stronger yuan, which has appreciated nearly 7 per cent against the US dollar over the past year, has increased purchasing power for Chinese firms and households. Rising global metal prices have also inflated the value of imports such as copper and aluminium-based products, further contributing to the upward trend.
However, analysts caution that external risks remain. Energy markets could create volatility in the coming months, particularly if disruptions affect key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Forecasts already suggest potential declines in oil and gas import values due to shifting global supply dynamics and price pressures.
Despite these uncertainties, China’s export sector continues to show resilience. Demand for renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles is strengthening China’s position in global markets, even as geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions persist. Experts note that China’s highly integrated industrial supply chains give it an advantage in absorbing external shocks, particularly in energy-intensive sectors.
Economists say the broader implication of this shift is a gradual rebalancing of China’s trade structure, where imports driven by advanced technology needs may play a larger role in shaping economic growth. While the country remains a dominant exporter, the AI-driven surge in imports suggests a more complex and interconnected trade model emerging in the years ahead, with global technology demand increasingly influencing China’s economic trajectory.
