It is known that Iran and Israel have been sworn enemies over the last several decades, and this is not the first time that both countries have fought in a war. However, in the past, such wars have lasted only a few days with limited damage, as both countries have limitations and cannot sustain an extended war beyond a certain point. However, the present ongoing war in the Middle East region is markedly different, as the USA, which is recognized as a super military power with considerable economic strength, has joined Israel in attacking Iran. As a result, the entire Middle East region has suffered enormously, with thousands of innocent people being killed, infrastructure facilities damaged, and the day-to-day life patterns of citizens in Middle Eastern countries being disrupted. On the other hand, in the USA, whose actions are the root cause of the ongoing, extended, and intensified Middle East war, the safety and comfortable lifestyle of people have not been affected, as the war is not taking place on its land.
It can no longer be concealed that the worldwide view is that the President of the USA has been principally responsible for escalating this war to its present extent. This view is considered appropriate, since Israel by itself cannot sustain a war of such intensity without help from the USA.
Now, the Middle East war has caused serious disruption in energy supply around the world, creating huge problems for several countries.
Israel’s bombing of Iran’s South Pars gas field has disrupted the world gas supply to a very significant extent. Iran’s attack has knocked out a sixth of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, worth 20 billion US dollars a year, and it would take 3 to 5 years to restore the facility to normalcy. Two of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and one of its gas-to-liquid (GTL) facilities have been damaged in the strikes. This would cause a loss of 12.8 million tonnes of LNG production per year. Iranian attacks have also forced the UAE to shut its Habshan gas facility and set off fires at Kuwait’s oil refineries. Several other attacks have taken place on gas fields and refineries carried out by Israel/USA as well as Iran.
Food security in the world will also be adversely affected in the next 2 to 3 years, as fertilizer production based on natural gas and crude oil would sharply decline in several countries. Further, India, Thailand, and Brazil would be particularly affected, since they depend on Gulf states for 40%, 70%, and 35% of urea imports respectively. Gulf states will also face serious food security challenges, with import dependence averaging 75% for rice and exceeding 90% for corn, soybean, and vegetable oil.
On close scrutiny of the events, discerning observers all over the world believe that there is no justification for this Iran–Israel/USA war.
This war has been started by Israel/USA.
The claim of the USA that Iran needs to be attacked because it is developing nuclear warheads has not been proved beyond doubt, with Iran clearly stating that it would use nuclear energy only for peaceful purposes, just as several other countries are doing. Even the International Atomic Energy Agency has clearly stated that it has no information or evidence to suggest that Iran is developing nuclear warheads. Obviously, the US President’s claim about Iran’s nuclear warheads falls flat.
Inevitably, observers and analysts view the present US action in Iran in the context of its forced military intervention in Venezuela, arresting its President, its claim of ownership over Greenland, repeated statements by the US President that Canada should be the 51st state of the USA, and his threat to take over Cuba.
Further, the unilateral imposition of trade tariffs by the USA on several countries, and the frequent upward and downward revisions of these tariffs without any obvious basis, dishonoring WTO regulations on world trade in the process, have caused huge global concern. In such a scenario, one cannot but conclude that there is a clear aggressive trend in the posture of the US President over the last several months.
The present US President was elected to power largely due to his promise that he would Make America Great Again (MAGA).
However, the implementation strategy for MAGA appears to be skewed, as it is essentially based on overwhelming self-interest with little consideration for international responsibility and accountability.
The damage in the war so far has been to such an extent that there would be a reduction in the supply of gas and oil from the Middle East region by at least 20 to 30% over the next 2 to 3 years. While such conditions cause a huge global shortage and significant price increases for crude oil and natural gas, the USA, which is a major cause of this prolonged and highly damaging war, is relatively unaffected, as it has large crude oil and gas production capabilities. In other words, the US economy and industry could become the biggest beneficiaries of the present Middle East war due to rising prices of crude oil and natural gas, and this would be at the cost of several nations around the world. The MAGA strategy should not be implemented in this manner.
There is palpable displeasure around the world regarding such policy approaches by the US President.
In such circumstances, if the US President believes that he can have his way everywhere under any conditions, he should be aware that rapidly developing global opinion against his policies and methods should also be a matter of concern for US citizens. US industry and businesses have investment interests in several parts of the world, and US citizens also travel widely across the globe. They are bound to feel the impact of global opinion as they interact with people in other countries. This would not be a happy situation for them. This would particularly be so, since the adverse impact of this Middle East war would be felt worldwide for at least the next 2 to 3 years.
