A new poll puts the right-wing senator one point down in a contest within the margin of error, with Friday’s televised debate offering a final opportunity to sway voters before Sunday’s presidential run-off.
Brazil’s presidential election remains too close to call, with right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro losing one percentage point in the latest opinion poll while President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds steady at 44%, leaving the candidates in a statistical tie four days before the vote.
The Quaest survey, commissioned by broadcaster Globo and published on Wednesday, puts Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44%. The poll has a margin of error of two percentage points, meaning the difference between the candidates does not establish a clear advantage for either contender.
Felipe Nunes, director of Quaest, cautioned against interpreting the small movement in the figures as evidence of a shift in the race. The candidates remain technically tied, he said, adding that “this fluctuation within the margin of error does not allow us to draw any conclusions about a comeback, a change or an advantage”.
The survey also detected a slight increase in the number of undecided voters among women, independent voters who support neither Lula nor Bolsonaro, and recipients of the Bolsa Familia social assistance programme. The government recently increased the benefit by 15%, with the additional money reaching recipients shortly before the second round.
The findings come as both campaigns intensify their efforts to win over remaining undecided voters. Lula is holding rallies in Minas Gerais, a key swing state, while Bolsonaro has secured the public support of singer Gustavo Lima, a major star of Brazil’s sertanejo country music genre. Lima has 45 million followers on Instagram and 12 million on X.
The candidates are also competing for influence across social media, where millions of internet users have mobilised during the final days of the campaign. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court is considering a possible ban on political and electoral content in WhatsApp groups for the 48 hours before the election and the 24 hours afterwards, according to the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.
If implemented, the restriction could affect Lula’s so-called “Army of Lula”, a network that already has seven million internet users, the report said.
The campaign, which initially began amid voter apathy and limited interest, gathered momentum after the first-round result surprised expectations. Bolsonaro received 47% of the valid votes, compared with 45% for Lula, prompting the left to mobilise supporters in street demonstrations and drawing defeated right-wing candidates towards Bolsonaro.
The latest poll follows a combative televised debate on Sunday, during which Bolsonaro displayed aggression and an overbearing attitude in his exchanges with Lula, according to the source. The senator initially succeeded in provoking his older rival. His subsequent one-point decline in the polling could be linked to his conduct during the debate, although the survey does not establish a causal connection.
The two candidates are due to meet again in a televised debate on Globo on Friday, in what could be their final major opportunity to influence voters before Sunday’s run-off.
Despite the narrow polling gap, Brazil is expected to count the votes relatively quickly. The country has used electronic voting machines for more than 25 years, allowing election authorities to process ballots across a vast territory and a population of nearly 160 million voters.
The Superior Electoral Court is expected to declare the winner within hours of voting ending, as the candidates enter the final days of a contest that has remained closely balanced since the first round.
