Public data from the People’s Bank of China shows only small monthly increases to its reserves this year, but analysts say the real numbers are far larger. Société Générale told the Financial Times that China’s total gold purchases in 2024 could reach as much as 250 tonnes, which would account for more than a third of global central bank demand. Traders and market experts say the official figures are now so low that few in the gold market believe them. Instead, they are turning to indirect indicators such as orders for freshly cast 400-ounce bars, which are typically refined in Switzerland or South Africa, shipped through London and then flown to China.
China’s buying is closely linked to its broader de-dollarisation push. Jeff Currie of Carlyle said the opacity of the gold market allows Beijing to accumulate bullion without detection, unlike oil shipments that can be monitored via satellites. The surge in central bank buying worldwide has already helped drive gold prices above $4,300 a troy ounce, but transparency around global purchases is evaporating. According to World Gold Council estimates cited by the Financial Times, only one-third of central bank buying was publicly reported in the most recent quarter, down sharply from about 90 percent four years ago.
Analysts say some governments choose not to report gold purchases to avoid political backlash, particularly from the Trump administration, which views bullion accumulation as a hedge against the dollar. China’s own buying is split among the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, its sovereign wealth fund CIC, and even the military. None are required to publish timely disclosures, and a former SAFE official told the Financial Times that current holdings remain far below Beijing’s official internal targets.
Alternative calculations suggest China’s gold accumulation is vastly underreported. Plenum Research estimates that discrepancies between China’s net imports, domestic production, commercial bank inventories and retail sales imply more than 1,300 tonnes of unreported official buying in both 2022 and 2023. China’s status as the world’s largest gold miner, responsible for 10 percent of global production, gives it an additional avenue to add to reserves away from international scrutiny.
China is also courting developing countries to store their gold inside its borders. Cambodia recently agreed to place newly acquired gold, purchased in renminbi, in the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s vault in Shenzhen, a person familiar with the arrangement told the Financial Times. The People’s Bank of China and SAFE declined to comment to the newspaper.
For many analysts, the exact scale of China’s gold buying may never be known. Adrian Ash of BullionVault told the Financial Times that any effort to calculate a precise figure “misses the problem that it is only one part of the enigma wrapped in the riddle which is China’s bullion market.”
