An exceptionally strong El Niño is expected to disrupt weather patterns across several continents, threatening food production, worsening hunger and exposing millions of vulnerable people to floods and droughts. Scientists anticipate that the phenomenon could become the strongest recorded since observations began in 1950, while humanitarian organisations are moving supplies into high-risk areas before extreme weather makes them inaccessible. In a report published by the German weekly newspaper Die Zeit, scientists, aid workers and communities across Peru, Kenya, Somalia and Thailand describe preparations for a crisis in which the capacity to withstand climate shocks is already severely limited.
Along Peru’s northern coast, unusually warm Pacific waters have disrupted the movements of humpback whales. Mothers and calves have remained near Los Órganos rather than travelling towards their usual breeding grounds off Ecuador, Colombia and Panama. The warmer sea has also coincided with increased discoveries of dead sea lions and seabirds, which tourists and marine researchers have found along the coast since the summer. The animals had struggled to find enough prey in waters normally among the world’s richest fishing grounds.
El Niño, named by Peruvian fishermen after the Christ child because it often reaches its peak around Christmas, occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts nine to 12 months. During the phenomenon, weakened trade winds alter the movement of warm ocean water and the distribution of rainfall. Warm, moist air rises over the eastern Pacific, while Indonesia and Australia can experience drier conditions. The resulting atmospheric connections can affect weather far beyond the Pacific, increasing the likelihood of droughts, heavy rainfall and flash floods in different regions.
At a conference on extreme weather in Hamburg in late September, Celeste Saulo, head of the World Meteorological Organisation, said a strong El Niño could influence the probability of extreme weather events in widely separated parts of the world. Andreas Becker, head of hydrometeorology at Germany’s national weather service, the Deutscher Wetterdienst, said the event expected this year could greatly exceed the strength of the El Niño three years earlier. The terms “Super-El-Niño” and “Godzilla-El-Niño” have consequently entered public discussion.
Scientists are also concerned about the interaction between El Niño and global warming. The oceans are currently warmer than at any time since records began, providing an already heated Pacific in which the phenomenon could produce further temperature increases. Research published in the journal Science in August offered evidence that global warming might also intensify El Niño itself. Climate scientists consequently anticipate further annual records for global temperatures.
The potential humanitarian consequences are particularly severe in East Africa. In Nairobi, Wilfred Mugo oversees three warehouses operated by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), where supplies are being prepared for emergencies. Among the stock are body bags, water containers, chlorine disinfectant, pumps and hoses for emergency drinking-water systems. Somalia is a particular concern because heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands can cause rivers to overflow several days later, destroying crops and sweeping away villages, bridges and hospitals.
Abdikarim Mohamed, an ICRC colleague recently returned from Somalia, warned that flooding could leave communities beyond the reach of relief workers. “When the floods begin, some places will become inaccessible because roads and airstrips will be under water,” he said. “At that point, it will be impossible to deliver anything.” The organisation is therefore transporting supplies to vulnerable areas in advance and teaching residents how to respond to changing weather patterns, move to higher ground, seek assistance and protect livestock. Mugo has also cleared the lowest shelves in his Nairobi warehouse because the building itself could face flooding.
Somalia’s vulnerability is compounded by prolonged conflict, displacement and food insecurity. More than a quarter of its population of 20 million people does not have enough to eat, and many children are malnourished. In a camp on the western outskirts of Mogadishu, 16,000 displaced people live in makeshift shelters constructed from sticks, rags and sacking. Mako Maale Nisab fled fighting in Qoryooley, 120 kilometres south-west of Mogadishu, and later returned home before being forced to flee again because of drought and hunger.
Her husband searches each morning for casual work. “If we are lucky, he finds something. Then we can eat. If not, we drink water and try to sleep,” she told Die Zeit. She described the loss of dignity that comes with displacement, saying that in the camp there were no people who knew who she was or where she came from.
The United Nations World Food Programme warned during the summer that El Niño could push an additional 49 million people into hunger. Yet humanitarian organisations have fewer resources available as governments reduce aid budgets. Michèle Kiermeier, deputy programme director of the World Food Programme in Somalia, described the resulting choices: “We take from the hungry, to give to the starving.”
In Thailand, the threat centres on water shortages, agricultural production and food prices. The country is one of the world’s three largest rice exporters, and its agricultural heartland lies in the Chao Phraya River basin north of Bangkok. Although El Niño generally makes Thailand drier, the national water authority warned during the summer that localised flash floods could occur alongside heat and drought, complicating preparations for farmers.
Nipon Poapongsakorn of the Thailand Development Research Institute said drought would particularly affect the durian harvest and the second rice crop. Durian exports to China generate billions of dollars for Thailand, while winter rice is a staple food. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation has warned that El Niño-related drought could extend from Pakistan to the Philippines, creating shortages and pushing up food prices.
In Peru, meanwhile, communities already struggling to afford meals face the combined threats of rising food costs and flooding. Lima has approximately 4,500 communal kitchens, where meals cost three soles, equivalent to 78 euro cents. In Pachacámac, one of the capital’s poorest districts, the Lurín River can swell during heavy rainfall in the highlands, sending mud and water through low-lying residential areas. During the previous major El Niño in 2017, 138 people died in the Lima region. A 2020 study also identified inadequate protective measures as a contributing factor, leaving poorer communities exposed to the consequences of extreme weather.
