As the war with Iran enters its third week, a growing divide is emerging among Gulf Arab states over how the conflict should end. What began with expectations of a swift campaign has instead evolved into a prolonged and costly war, with oil refineries ablaze, critical infrastructure under attack, and regional economies under severe strain. According to reporting cited by Times UK, Gulf leaders are now split between those who want an immediate halt to hostilities and those who believe the mission to weaken or topple Iran’s regime must be carried through.
At the outset, many Gulf states sought to avoid direct involvement, reassuring Tehran of their neutrality while bracing for possible retaliation against US military bases on their soil. However, the scale and intensity of Iran’s response has both surprised and angered them. Iranian strikes have targeted critical infrastructure across the region, including oil and gas facilities, airports, and urban centers, undermining years of diplomatic efforts aimed at easing tensions.
Tehran’s strategy appears aimed at exerting pressure on Gulf governments by raising the economic cost of the war. By targeting energy infrastructure and threatening the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has sought to disrupt global energy markets and compel regional powers to push Washington toward a ceasefire. Yet this approach has had mixed results. While some countries are calling for de-escalation, others have become more supportive of continued military action in response to the attacks.
The economic fallout has been severe. Qatar has been forced to shut down its largest gas facility, halting production that accounts for the vast majority of its national revenue. In the United Arab Emirates, the impact has been felt in a different way, with tourism declining sharply after drone strikes hit high-profile locations in Dubai. The resulting loss of confidence has led to job cuts in sectors that form a substantial part of the city’s economy.
Across the region, billions of dollars in oil and gas revenues have been lost, and economic contraction now appears inevitable. Some countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Oman, have been relatively less affected due to their ability to export energy through alternative routes and their lower dependence on tourism. However, even these advantages are under threat as Iran expands its targeting, including strikes on key Red Sea export facilities.
This uneven impact has contributed to the growing divide among Gulf states. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seen as more willing to endure short-term losses in the hope of a decisive outcome that weakens Iran’s military capabilities. Officials have signaled that they are prepared to escalate further if attacks continue, reserving the option of direct involvement in the conflict.
In contrast, countries such as Qatar and Oman are advocating for an immediate ceasefire, arguing that prolonged airstrikes are unlikely to achieve regime change and will only deepen regional instability. For these nations, the priority is to halt the damage to their economies and prevent further escalation that could spiral beyond control.
Analysts suggest that this split reflects a broader strategic dilemma. On one hand, Gulf leaders are angered by Iran’s actions and believe there must be consequences. On the other, they remain deeply wary of a wider war that could devastate the region. This tension has left them navigating a delicate balance between supporting military pressure and avoiding further escalation.
Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have so far struggled to gain traction. Oman, which has historically played a mediating role between the United States and Iran, has been particularly vocal in calling for restraint. Its officials have criticized the logic of a campaign aimed at dismantling the Iranian regime, warning that such an objective may be unrealistic and counterproductive.
Meanwhile, military dynamics on the ground continue to evolve. Iran’s capacity to launch large-scale attacks appears to have diminished compared to the early days of the war, although its strikes remain precise and disruptive. Gulf states, supported by allied air forces, have managed to intercept many incoming threats, drawing on stockpiles prepared in anticipation of such a conflict.
The challenge for the region will extend beyond the battlefield. Even as leaders debate how the war should end, attention is beginning to shift toward the immense task of economic recovery. Each country faces its own set of challenges, from rebuilding damaged infrastructure to restoring investor confidence and stabilizing public finances.
For now, however, the immediate question remains unresolved. With Gulf states divided and the conflict showing no clear signs of ending, the war with Iran is reshaping alliances and exposing fault lines that could define the region’s future long after the fighting stops.
