India’s imports of Russian crude oil are expected to fall to their lowest level in at least three years in December, trade and refining sources told Reuters, as refiners shift to alternatives to avoid breaching Western sanctions. The decline follows a surge in November, when Indian refiners rushed to secure barrels ahead of a U.S. deadline to wind down dealings with Russia’s top producers, Rosneft and Lukoil.
Provisional data from ship-tracking agency Kpler shows India imported around 1.855 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil in November, the highest since July, compared with 1.48 million bpd in October. The spike was driven by refiners topping up stocks ahead of the U.S. sanctions deadline on November 21, as well as rules aimed at shifting European fuel production away from Russian crude by 2026.
However, Indian state refiners are expected to sharply reduce Russian purchases in December to roughly 600,000–650,000 bpd, according to sources. Bank scrutiny following U.S. sanctions has made companies “extremely cautious,” they said. Imports will primarily come from Indian Oil Corp, Nayara Energy, and pre-loaded November cargoes for Reliance Industries. Most other refiners, including Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, Hindustan Petroleum, and HPCL-Mittal Energy, have halted purchases of Russian crude.
Reliance Industries, which operates the world’s largest refining complex, said it will process only cargoes “precommitted” before October 22 at its domestic-focused refinery, while other shipments will go through its export-oriented facility. Nayara Energy, partly owned by Rosneft, continues to process Russian oil amid withdrawals by other suppliers following UK and EU sanctions.
The reduction in Russian imports comes amid rising pressure from the U.S., which has doubled tariffs on Indian imports to 50% in response to New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil. India’s reliance on discounted Russian crude, the largest among global buyers after Western nations shunned Moscow post-2022, has created a delicate balancing act between energy security and compliance with sanctions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit India next month, marking his first trip since December 2021, just months before the invasion of Ukraine. The visit underscores the ongoing strategic energy ties between the two countries even as India navigates the tightening Western sanctions landscape.
