This year, Iran exported roughly 1.67 million barrels per day, a 5% increase from 2024 and the highest since U.S. sanctions were reimposed in 2018. China accounted for approximately 750,000 barrels per day, while an estimated 900,000 barrels were delivered to destinations that could not be identified, up from around 290,000 barrels last year.
Experts note that buyers of Iranian crude, particularly those outside direct U.S. trade links, remain less exposed to sanctions. Iranian oil is reportedly trading at a discount of $8 to $9 per barrel compared with international benchmarks, offering an attractive option for small and midsize refineries in Asia.
Iran ranked fifth among global oil producers in 2024, with an output of about 5.06 million barrels per day, according to the British Energy Institute. Tankers transporting the crude often engage in ship-to-ship transfers or deliberately obscure their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals to disguise the oil’s origin, with some shipments reportedly reflagged to appear as if originating from countries like Malaysia.
U.S. authorities continue to monitor Iranian exports closely, though some analysts speculate that the Trump administration may be cautious about cracking down too aggressively, concerned that stricter enforcement could raise gasoline prices ahead of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections. Yuya Akizuki, director of energy research at the Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, said, “The Trump administration could broaden the scope of sanctions and beef up its crackdown if it wanted to.”
Iran previously agreed to limit its nuclear activities under the 2015 deal, in return for sanctions relief, boosting petroleum exports. However, the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the agreement and renewed sanctions caused exports to plummet, with the COVID-19 pandemic further reducing output to around 390,000 barrels per day in 2020.
Since then, Iran has steadily increased shipments and demonstrated resilience against sanctions, though the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. Analysts note that OPEC+ members, including Russia, have eased production cuts this year, contributing to lower global oil prices. “If the price gap between Iranian oil and other sources narrows, China may stop purchasing Iranian crude,” Akizuki added.
Nuclear talks with Tehran remain stalled following attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities by Israel and the U.S. in June. The United Nations reimposed its own sanctions on Iran at the end of September, effectively signaling the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal.
