According to four industry executives familiar with the matter, the Mexican government has begun talks with private energy firms about ramping up fracking, a practice long shunned by Sheinbaum’s left-wing Morena party and environmental groups. The conversations mark a cautious but significant departure from the administration’s earlier stance, and reflect an urgent drive for energy independence as tensions rise with Washington.
“An unpredictable U.S. president could leave large parts of the country in darkness within days,” one executive told the Financial Times, referencing Mexico’s reliance on the U.S. for 70% of its natural gas supply.
President Sheinbaum, a former climate scientist and UN climate contributor, has long opposed fracking over environmental concerns. But mounting geopolitical and economic pressures are forcing her to reconsider. At a recent event, she outlined plans to increase domestic gas production from 3.8 billion cubic feet per day to 5 billion by 2030 using what she described as “sustainable methods.”
The potential policy reversal is part of a broader balancing act for Sheinbaum: delivering on promises to rescue debt-ridden state oil company Pemex, meet climate goals, and insulate Mexico’s economy from U.S. trade volatility. Analysts say her pivot reflects growing recognition that energy sovereignty may require tough compromises.
Mexico possesses the world’s sixth-largest recoverable shale gas reserves, much of it located in the Burgos Basin — a geologic extension of Texas’ prolific Eagle Ford formation. However, development has been minimal due to political resistance and environmental concerns. Former president Enrique Peña Nieto attempted to open fracking to private investment in 2018, but the effort was swiftly scrapped by his successor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Sheinbaum’s political mentor.
Now, with Mexico facing a budget deficit and Pemex’s financial woes deepening, Sheinbaum’s government appears open to reactivating stalled energy reforms — potentially through a new public-private partnership model passed earlier this year.
Pemex CEO Victor Padilla hinted at the shift in recent remarks to petroleum engineers, noting Mexico’s conventional gas reserves are nearly depleted. “We need to know what’s in the ground, how much it would cost, and what we could gain,” he said.
Critics warn that embracing fracking could undermine Sheinbaum’s global image as a climate advocate and ignite backlash from Morena’s progressive base. “It’s a tightrope,” one political analyst said. “You can’t be a green president and drill the shale at the same time — not without consequences.”
Still, the urgency of Mexico’s energy dilemma may outweigh political optics. Trump’s newly announced 20–25% tariffs on Mexican goods, combined with protectionist rhetoric aimed at North American partners, have rattled confidence across sectors. While Mexican exports have largely avoided the harshest duties so far, the potential for gas supply disruptions looms large.
Adding to the pressure is Pemex’s staggering debt — now the highest of any oil company globally — and looming threats to Mexico’s investment-grade credit rating.
“The slogan on Pemex workers’ shirts says ‘Rescuing our sovereignty,’” said Padilla. “If we don’t have our own resources, we can’t make our own decisions. We depend on others.”
Whether Mexico will fully embrace fracking remains uncertain. The talks are preliminary, and any concrete shift could take months to unfold. But the government’s quiet outreach to the energy sector signals a possible new phase for Mexico’s energy future — one shaped as much by geopolitics as by geology.
