In the early days of January, Iran faced a dual crisis: nationwide protests demanding political reform and the looming threat of military strikes from the United States. In response, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the nation’s supreme leader, turned to one of his most trusted lieutenants, Ali Larijani, to navigate the Islamic Republic through this precarious moment. Larijani, 67, a seasoned politician and former Revolutionary Guards commander, now serves as the head of the Supreme National Security Council and has become the de facto authority in Iran, sidelining President Masoud Pezeshkian, who has publicly admitted he is “a doctor, not a politician.”
According to a New York Times account, based on interviews with six senior Iranian officials, three Revolutionary Guards members, two former diplomats, and Iranian media reports, Larijani’s rise has been swift and strategic. He has overseen the brutal suppression of protests, maintained dialogue with allies such as Russia, Qatar, and Oman, and engaged in nuclear negotiations with Washington. He has also been tasked with crafting contingency plans for Iran’s survival in the event of a U.S. military attack.
In a rare interview with Al Jazeera during a visit to Doha, Larijani declared, “We are ready in our country. We are definitely more powerful than before. We have prepared in the past seven, eight months. We found our weaknesses and fixed them. We are not looking for war, and we won’t start the war. But if they force it on us, we will respond.” His words underscore Iran’s determination to defend itself against external threats while projecting an image of resilience.
The New York Times reports that Khamenei has instructed Larijani and a close circle of political and military confidants to ensure the Islamic Republic survives both military strikes and targeted assassinations, including potential attacks on the supreme leader himself. Nasser Imani, a conservative analyst, emphasized Khamenei’s trust in Larijani, citing his political acumen and experience as crucial in navigating Iran through what officials describe as an acute security crisis.
Larijani, who hails from an elite political and religious family and previously served 12 years as the speaker of Parliament, has also been central to long-term strategic initiatives, such as negotiating a 25-year deal with China worth billions. Under Khamenei’s directives, Iran now has multiple layers of succession planning for top military and government roles. Leaders have been ordered to designate replacements and delegate authority to ensure continuity in case communications with the supreme leader are disrupted or he is killed.
Some of these measures were informed by Iran’s experience with Israel’s surprise attack last June, which decimated its senior military command early in the conflict. In response, Khamenei appointed Larijani as secretary of the National Security Council and created a new National Defense Council under Adm. Ali Shamkhani to manage military affairs during wartime. Analysts, including Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins University, note that Khamenei is preparing for the dual possibility of war and martyrdom, distributing power strategically to safeguard the regime’s future.
Sources told the New York Times that Iran is operating under the assumption that U.S. strikes are imminent. The nation has placed its armed forces on the highest alert, positioned ballistic missiles along its western border with Iraq and southern shores of the Persian Gulf, and conducted missile tests and naval exercises, including a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These steps demonstrate Tehran’s readiness to threaten both Israel and American military installations in the region.
Domestically, Iran is preparing for internal unrest. Special forces, intelligence agents, and units of the Basij militia are expected to patrol cities, set up checkpoints, and counter foreign espionage if war breaks out. Leaders have even considered political succession scenarios inspired by Venezuela, evaluating which figures could manage the country if Khamenei and top officials were killed. Larijani tops this list, followed by Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and, unexpectedly, former president Hassan Rouhani, despite his diminished influence. Each, however, carries political baggage, including accusations of corruption and human rights abuses, complicating public acceptance.
Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group, told the New York Times that while contingency plans exist, the outcome of a U.S.-Iran conflict remains uncertain. “The supreme leader is less visible, more vulnerable, but he is still the super glue keeping the system together,” Vaez said. “Everyone understands that if he is not there anymore, it would be hard to keep the system together.”
Larijani’s visibility has surged in recent months, outshining President Pezeshkian. He has traveled to Moscow to consult with President Vladimir V. Putin, met regional leaders, and engaged extensively with nuclear negotiators, often appearing in media interviews and posting publicly on social media. Even Pezeshkian has deferred to Larijani, acknowledging in a cabinet meeting that lifting internet restrictions to aid e-commerce required Larijani’s approval, highlighting the concentration of authority in Larijani’s hands.
In the tense standoff with the United States, Iranian officials recounted that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff sought contact with Tehran’s foreign minister to prevent executions of protesters, demonstrating the precarious balance between diplomacy and military readiness. Larijani’s role, according to New York Times sources, has been central in these communications, reinforcing his position as the regime’s operational and political pivot.
As Iran positions itself against the prospect of war while managing internal dissent and international negotiations, Larijani’s ascent illustrates the intersection of power, loyalty, and survival strategy at the heart of the Islamic Republic. The New York Times reporting paints a portrait of a nation bracing for conflict and a leadership determined to endure, no matter the cost.
