At a bustling convention center in Beijing in late March, historian Adam Tooze towered over a cluster of Chinese journalists pressing him for answers. Their questions were urgent and revealing: what does Donald Trump’s next move mean for China, and how should the world interpret the escalating tensions between the two superpowers? The moment captured a broader global anxiety—one defined by uncertainty in Washington and calculated planning in Beijing.
Tooze, a prominent British intellectual, had arrived to speak at the China Development Forum, a gathering of global business leaders, policymakers, and academics. The event drew an influential crowd, from Nobel Prize-winning economists to executives of multinational corporations, all seeking to understand the shifting dynamics of global power. Yet the backdrop to these discussions was far from stable. While participants debated investment strategies and long-term growth, the United States, under President Donald Trump, was intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Opening his lecture, Tooze framed the moment with striking clarity. The world, he argued, is defined by stark contrasts. On one side lies a United States characterized by volatility—marked by military interventions, unpredictable policy decisions, and escalating conflicts. On the other stands China, projecting an image of order through long-term planning, embodied in its recently approved 15th Five-Year Plan. The juxtaposition, he suggested, is no longer avoidable.
According to reporting highlighted by El Pais, this divergence has become even more pronounced since Trump’s return to the White House. For many analysts, Beijing already emerged stronger from the previous trade war with Washington. Now, attention is turning to whether China will also benefit strategically from the United States’ involvement in the Middle East.
China’s approach has been notably measured yet assertive. While responding firmly to U.S. actions—such as disputes over rare earth exports and formal complaints to the World Trade Organization—it has simultaneously positioned itself as a defender of diplomacy and multilateralism. This dual strategy allows Beijing to present itself as both resilient and responsible, contrasting sharply with what many perceive as American unpredictability.
This perception appears to be gaining traction globally. A Gallup poll in 2025 showed that China had surpassed the United States in global approval ratings, with 36% of respondents expressing confidence in Chinese leadership compared to 31% for the U.S. Although both figures remain relatively low, the shift is significant, marking one of the rare moments in recent decades where China has overtaken its rival in global opinion.
Tooze himself acknowledged a personal shift in perspective, joking that he was “chinamaxxing,” a term popularized online to describe the adoption of Chinese cultural habits. Beneath the humor lies a serious effort to understand China’s complex political and economic system. He emphasized that Western nations must engage more deeply with the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party, which he described as central to the country’s model of “high-quality development.”
In Beijing, there is a growing sense that the Trump era has inadvertently served as a form of strategic advantage for China. Analysts point to narratives circulating within policy circles, including commentary inspired by a recent cover of The Economist. The image—depicting a flustered Trump alongside a composed Xi Jinping—captured a sentiment increasingly echoed in Chinese discourse: that the United States may be undermining itself.
Experts argue that recent geopolitical developments have reinforced this view. The U.S. handling of tensions involving Iran, particularly around the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, has created new opportunities for Beijing. China’s ability to leverage its relationships and economic influence has allowed it to play a quiet but pivotal role in de-escalation efforts.
In fact, China’s diplomatic engagement appears to have been instrumental in facilitating a fragile ceasefire. While Pakistan acted as an unexpected mediator, even Trump acknowledged China’s behind-the-scenes involvement. Reports indicate that Beijing urged Iran to adopt a more flexible stance, contributing to the breakthrough. For China, this intervention not only stabilized a volatile situation but also enhanced its reputation as a global peacemaker.
Chinese officials have been quick to emphasize their commitment to diplomacy. Foreign Ministry representatives have highlighted extensive outreach efforts, including dozens of high-level communications aimed at reducing tensions. Joint initiatives with regional partners have further underscored Beijing’s proactive approach to conflict resolution.
For analysts, these developments represent a significant geopolitical win for China. By helping to broker peace while maintaining strong ties with key players, Beijing strengthens its position as a stabilizing force. At the same time, it gains recognition from Washington, potentially setting the stage for more constructive engagement between the two powers.
The implications extend beyond the Middle East. In Asia, China’s influence continues to grow, with many Southeast Asian nations increasingly viewing it as a preferred strategic partner. Surveys indicate a shifting regional alignment, while even traditionally close U.S. allies are reassessing their positions. In Canada, for instance, public opinion polls suggest that the United States is now perceived as a greater security concern than China.
From Beijing’s perspective, these shifts are not accidental. Analysts argue that U.S. policies—particularly those seen as disregarding international law—have weakened its global standing. The diversion of military resources away from the Asia-Pacific region is also viewed as advantageous for China, allowing it to consolidate its influence closer to home.
At the same time, China’s leadership remains aware of the risks posed by prolonged conflict. Economic stability, particularly in energy markets, is critical to its continued growth. Efforts to promote peace are therefore driven not only by strategic considerations but also by the need to preserve the global conditions that have enabled China’s rise.
The situation has also reinforced Beijing’s long-term priorities. Observing U.S. military operations has validated China’s investment in modernizing its armed forces, while disruptions in oil and gas supplies have strengthened the case for energy security and renewable development—key pillars of its national strategy.
These objectives are deeply embedded in the country’s Five-Year Plans, which provide a structured framework for economic and political development. As Tooze noted in his lecture, this systematic approach represents a fundamental challenge to Western models, particularly in an era where unpredictability appears to dominate.
The emerging global landscape is thus defined by a complex interplay of chaos and strategy. While the United States grapples with internal and external pressures, China is steadily advancing its position through calculated moves and long-term planning. The contrast, as Tooze suggested, is not just a passing phase but a defining feature of the current era.
As the world watches the evolving relationship between Washington and Beijing, one question looms large: can stability prevail in a system increasingly shaped by competing visions of power? For now, China appears determined to turn uncertainty into opportunity, reshaping the balance of influence in ways that may endure for years to come.
