The United States is approaching a historic turning point in global agriculture as weakening export demand, prolonged trade tensions and rising international competition threaten its century-long position as the world’s leading agricultural exporter. According to the Financial Times, the changing balance is becoming increasingly visible across America’s Midwest, where farmers are grappling with shrinking margins despite record harvests, while Brazil continues to expand its influence over global food markets.
On the outskirts of Carlisle, Iowa, farmer Corey Goodhue has watched his family’s operation transform over five decades. What began as a traditional Midwestern farm under his father has expanded into a 3,000-acre business equipped with some of the largest agricultural machinery available. Yet the growth in scale has not translated into stronger profitability. Despite producing the best soybean harvest in the farm’s history last year, Goodhue said the crop still generated a financial loss. This year, even with expected yields and no major equipment failures, operating income is projected to reach only about US$60,000 against more than US$2 million in expenditure.
Goodhue’s experience reflects a broader challenge facing American agriculture. The American Farm Bureau Federation projects that many farmers will continue producing staple crops at a loss, with negative returns forecast across soybeans, corn, wheat and cotton. According to the Financial Times, these pressures are placing unprecedented strain on an industry that has long underpinned the United States’ dominance in global agricultural trade.
That leadership is now under growing challenge from Brazil. United States agricultural exports totalled US$171 billion last year, only narrowly exceeding Brazil’s US$169 billion. With Brazilian exports continuing to rise, analysts cited by the Financial Times believe 2026 could become the year in which Brazil overtakes the United States as the world’s largest agricultural exporter.
Brazil has already established itself as the world’s leading producer of soybeans, beef and poultry, while also replacing the United States as the largest exporter of cotton. Much of that shift has been driven by changing Chinese purchasing patterns, with Beijing increasingly sourcing agricultural commodities from Brazil rather than American suppliers.
The transformation began to accelerate during the first Trump administration. In 2018, President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to retaliate by targeting products grown in states that had strongly supported him politically. Soybean exports to China, once one of the foundations of American farm prosperity, declined sharply.
According to the Financial Times, years spent cultivating commercial relationships with Chinese buyers were rapidly undermined as tariffs altered established trade flows. Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, said relationships built through decades of international trade could disappear almost overnight when agreements changed unexpectedly.
While American farms continued producing crops, demand shifted elsewhere. Farmers remained committed to land leases, equipment financing, fertiliser purchases and planting decisions that had been made months in advance. The first Trump administration responded with approximately US$23 billion in agricultural subsidies during 2018 and 2019, but many producers argued that financial assistance could not replace stable export markets.
Goodhue said farmers were seeking sustainable trade rather than direct government payments. Joseph Glauber, former chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture, told the Financial Times that Brazil’s expansion in global soybean exports accelerated dramatically following the 2018 trade dispute, surpassing earlier projections years ahead of schedule. By the time President Trump returned to office, Brazil had firmly established itself as China’s principal soybean supplier, with new trading relationships and processing infrastructure already deeply embedded.
The current administration maintains that it is expanding overseas markets through trade missions and export credit programmes. The US Department of Agriculture said it expects agricultural exports to reach a record US$174 billion during the twelve months ending in September and stated that the administration is working to ensure producers are not dependent on any single overseas buyer. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also told the Financial Times that no recent American president had placed greater emphasis on supporting farmers.
Even so, the Financial Times reports that many producers remain concerned about renewed tariff uncertainty. Farming requires planting decisions months before crops are harvested, making sudden policy changes particularly disruptive for long-term planning.
While American agriculture confronts weakening export markets, Brazil has continued expanding production through structural advantages that extend beyond trade policy. Analysts say much of the country’s agricultural success stems from its ability to harvest two crops annually across large areas, with some irrigated land producing three harvests each year. This intensive production model spreads costs more efficiently and strengthens farm profitability.
The centre-western state of Mato Grosso has become the centrepiece of that expansion. Vast soybean plantations, cotton fields and cattle ranches stretch across the region alongside modern grain silos and processing facilities. Agricultural output has more than doubled during the past thirteen years, supported by advances in tropical agronomy, improved crop genetics and expanding cultivation across previously underutilised land.
Nevertheless, Brazilian agriculture also faces mounting challenges. The country imports most of its fertiliser, leaving producers vulnerable to higher global prices linked to the conflict involving Iran. Elevated domestic interest rates and declining commodity prices have further reduced profitability. Researchers at Purdue University estimated that soybean profits in Mato Grosso fell to their lowest level in two decades during the most recent harvest.
Fernando Pozzobon, whose family operates a large mixed farming enterprise in Mato Grosso, told the Financial Times that current market conditions have become increasingly difficult. However, unlike their American counterparts, Brazilian farmers continue to benefit from maintaining dominant access to the Chinese soybean market.
The weakening of export demand has also reshaped how many American farmers generate income. Increasingly, domestic government-supported ethanol production provides one of the few reliable markets for corn. Wendy Johnson, who farms in northern Iowa near an ethanol plant, said the facility has become essential to maintaining profitability. Around 40 per cent of the American corn crop is now used for ethanol production under federal blending requirements and tax incentives.
Following rising oil prices linked to tensions in the Middle East, the Environmental Protection Agency increased biofuel blending requirements and introduced emergency waivers allowing wider sales of higher-ethanol fuel blends. While these measures have expanded domestic demand for corn and soybean oil, Johnson told the Financial Times that many farmers increasingly view themselves as producing fuel rather than food.
The economic pressures are also reshaping rural America. As smaller farms disappear, their land is typically absorbed into larger operations capable of spreading machinery and technology costs across more acreage. Although production continues, fewer farming families remain to support schools, local businesses, churches and rural communities. Bob Stewart, a fifth-generation farmer in Illinois, said the declining number of farmers has also reduced their influence in local government.
By contrast, agricultural expansion has fuelled rapid growth across parts of Brazil, particularly in Mato Grosso, where towns such as Sorriso and Lucas do Rio Verde have developed into thriving centres of agribusiness. Yet that growth has also raised concerns over environmental change and exposed weaknesses in transport infrastructure, with producers continuing to face high freight costs due to limited rail capacity and poor road networks.
Despite these contrasting trajectories, farmers in both countries remain exposed to volatile commodity prices, geopolitical tensions and shifting international markets. According to the Financial Times, many American farmers supported President Trump’s trade agenda and remain willing to accept temporary hardship if it ultimately produces stronger trading relationships. However, some say uncertainty has persisted longer than anticipated. Wendy Johnson recalled that many producers initially believed short-term disruption would eventually lead to better opportunities, but said optimism has gradually diminished as the expected recovery has yet to materialise.
