The terrorist threat confronting Asia is becoming more complex even as some of the world’s most prominent extremist organisations face sustained pressure, according to a new United Nations assessment. The threat level overall “remained broadly unchanged”, the report says, but “intensified in the Sahel and South Asia”, pointing to a pattern in which weakened central leadership has not necessarily translated into a diminished capacity for violence.
The assessment, contained in the thirty-eighth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, covers information received up to 9 June 2026. It describes a movement away from the territorial ambitions that once defined Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, Da’esh) towards increasingly dispersed and networked forms of militancy. ISIL’s ability to provide coherent direction to its global network has weakened, but its propaganda and capacity to incite violence remain potent.
For South Asia, Afghanistan remains central to the security picture. The report says the terrorist threat emanating from Afghanistan “remained largely unchanged” and that the ability of numerous terrorist groups to operate there constituted “an enduring threat” to neighbouring countries and Central Asia. Despite efforts by the de facto authorities to combat Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIL-K) and contain other groups, the report says they were unable to suppress the wider terrorist problem.
ISIL-K remained the greatest threat to Afghanistan’s de facto authorities and the wider region. Counter-terrorism operations by Pakistan and the de facto authorities inflicted serious setbacks, and attacks declined in Afghanistan while increasing in Pakistan. Yet the group was described as being in a “rebuilding phase”, with a renewed capability for “infrequent but high-profile mass casualty attacks”. Regional Member States reported that ISIL-K possessed modern tactical equipment, including drones, night-vision devices and thermal imagers, and had received training in urban combat and drone use.
The consequences have already been visible. On 19 January, ISIL-K claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing at a Chinese restaurant in central Kabul that killed 12 people and injured 15. On 6 February, a suicide bomber attacked the Khadija Tul Kubra Shia mosque in Islamabad during Friday prayers, killing 32 people and injuring more than 150. The attack was claimed by a group calling itself ISIL in Pakistan but was assessed as likely to have been conducted by ISIL-K.
At the same time, Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continued to escalate attacks against Pakistan. Its announced “Operation Khyber” called for increased attacks against security forces and civilians. On 16 February, a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device attack in Bajaur district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killed 11 security personnel and one child. The group claimed responsibility and was reportedly operating from Afghanistan.
The report also points to an evolving relationship between extremist organisations and the wider regional environment. Approximately 2,000 TTP fighters and their families were relocated further inside Afghanistan by the de facto authorities in an effort to rein in the group. Al-Qaida’s official media outlet, the As-Sahab Media Foundation, meanwhile published a statement supporting both the Taliban and, for the first time, TTP operations against Pakistan.
Further south and east, the threat is more fragmented. In South-East Asia, ISIL-linked entities and residual Al-Qaida influence remained “fragmented and decentralized”. Although the operational capacity of ISIL in South-East Asia and affiliated regional networks had declined, risks persisted through dispersed cells, self-radicalised individuals, online recruitment and loosely connected networks.
The report identifies the online environment as an increasingly important arena for recruitment. The trend towards recruiting and mobilising youth and minors “appears to be accelerating and expanding”. Many recruits appear to be mobilised entirely online, while traditional spaces such as prisons and community centres have become less influential. In some cases, recruitment has taken only weeks, making detection and intervention more difficult.
The methods are also changing. Extremist organisations have increased the availability of propaganda online, reduced their reliance on direct physical contact and tailored outreach towards younger audiences across platforms including online gaming and game-adjacent services. The report says initial contact is often made through social media or gaming platforms before potential recruits are directed towards encrypted applications or the dark web.
The concern extends beyond Asia. In Africa, the Sahel has emerged as one of the principal areas of escalation. Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) remained the leading terrorist threat in the Sahel, while rivalry with Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) intensified. The United Nations described their confrontation as “the most intense direct confrontation globally between an Al-Qaida branch and an ISIL (Da’esh) affiliate”.
JNIM’s activities expanded across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Benin, while ISGS increased its operational capabilities and expanded its presence into north-western Nigeria. In the Lake Chad basin, ISWAP remained the most active ISIL affiliate, conducting more than 174 attacks between January and May, exceeding the number recorded during the same period in 2025.
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Allied Democratic Forces continued to pose a significant security challenge. The group remained active in North Kivu and Ituri while expanding into Tshopo and Haut-Uélé provinces. Between January and May, it carried out more than 80 attacks, resulting in more than 400 deaths and the displacement of many civilians.
The Middle East remains another critical arena. ISIL and Al-Qaida continued to exploit security gaps in Syria, while the closure of detention facilities created additional concerns. The report says between 15,000 and 20,000 ISIL-affiliated individuals, mostly women and children, formerly held at Hawl camp remained unaccounted for after its closure on 22 February.
Europe and North America, meanwhile, face a different but connected form of danger. The threat there remained “contained but persistent”, driven primarily by homegrown lone actors inspired by ISIL propaganda online rather than by operatives with direct organisational links. Four attacks were carried out during the reporting period, while a dozen attack plots were disrupted.
The report’s central finding is therefore not that extremist organisations have disappeared, but that their methods and structures are changing. ISIL’s spokesperson Abu Hudhaya al-Ansari promoted a model of “decentralized, persistent operations”, reflecting a shift “from territorial control to a global, networked insurgency”. His February 2026 statement acknowledged that ISIL was in “a difficult position” after two years “drenched in blood”, even as it called for attacks by “lone lions” in Europe and America.
The geography of the threat may therefore be shifting, but its reach remains global. From Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Sahel, the Middle East, South-East Asia, Europe and North America, the report depicts organisations under pressure but capable of adapting through decentralised cells, regional affiliates, propaganda and increasingly rapid online mobilisation. For Asia, where the United Nations says the threat has intensified, the warning is especially stark: military pressure may weaken individual organisations, but it does not necessarily eliminate the networks, technology and recruitment methods that allow extremist violence to survive beyond the battlefield.
