Iran has adopted new tactics to target ships navigating the Strait of Hormuz and plans to extend its maritime operations into surrounding waters, two senior Iranian officials said, describing a strategy intended to keep global oil prices elevated and influence the outcome of November’s US midterm elections.
Tehran has sought to control passage through the strategic waterway since the United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on 28 February. Before the war, the strait carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade. Iranian restrictions and attacks have sharply reduced shipping traffic, pushing up oil prices while some vessels continue to transit.
One Iranian official said Tehran had begun using different offensive tactics against vessels it considered to be violating its restrictions about 10 days ago, contributing to an increase in attacks. The revised strategy involved changes in both the type and frequency of strikes, the officials said, and had been approved at the highest levels of Iran’s leadership.
“The aim is to frustrate efforts by the United States and its allies to bring down global oil prices,” one official said.
A US military official confirmed that Iran had changed its methods following US strikes that destroyed much of the country’s radar capabilities. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had begun deploying unarmed spotters in small boats to identify potential targets, including US naval vessels, the official said.
In an incident last week that had not previously been reported, US forces identified an Iranian spotter vessel, described as a dhow, that was allegedly relaying target information to the IRGC. American forces confronted the vessel, instructed its occupants to abandon ship and then destroyed it. There were no casualties, according to the US official.
Iran’s reduced naval capabilities have limited its ability to use its remaining fast boats to disrupt shipping, the official said. This has also restricted Tehran’s capacity to prevent an increase in oil exports through the strait, particularly after US strikes severely damaged its navy.
The conflict has become an issue in the US political campaign ahead of November’s midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress. The war costs the United States about $3 billion a month, according to the supplied account. President Donald Trump has been considering further action against Iran but has said he will not launch another attack before the vote.
Washington is meanwhile maintaining a naval blockade of Iranian ports and extending sanctions to increase economic pressure on Tehran and secure an agreement to end the conflict.
Maritime security data indicate that attacks on commercial vessels have intensified. At least five incidents involving tankers and other commercial ships were recorded around the Hormuz area over a 48-hour period, including drone strikes, according to maritime security sources and reports to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency, which is affiliated with the British navy.
The incident rate was approximately comparable to that recorded between 3 and 5 October, according to data from the International Maritime Organization, the UN shipping agency. One maritime security source described the increase as deliberate, saying: “There is a tempo increase in strikes, which looks deliberate.”
Iran’s planned expansion of operations would take the campaign beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Gulf of Oman and waters further afield, the two officials said. Maritime security analysis suggests attacks have already extended to areas beyond the strait, including waters off Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
The second Iranian official said Tehran would seek to prevent Trump from lowering oil prices before the elections. “Just when they think they are getting close to the point where prices will fall, we will push them away from it. This is a game of chess,” the official said, adding that vessels targeted under Iran’s restrictions would be unsafe even outside the strait.
Both Iranian officials said Tehran was moving towards a complete closure of the waterway to vessels violating its restrictions. “It will be complete closure soon,” one said.
In its latest report on Sunday, the US Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center assessed the threat to merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as “severe”, its second-highest level, citing continued IRGC attacks and attempted attacks, unmanned aerial vehicle overflights, targeted surveillance of merchant ships and occasional radio calls to vessels over very high frequency channels.
