Blackstone president Jonathan Gray has issued a stark warning that the U.S. economy could tip into recession if the White House fails to secure timely trade agreements, adding pressure on President Donald Trump to resolve ongoing tariff disputes.
Speaking on the heels of a 90-day suspension of the administration’s sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, Gray said the duration of what he called “tariff diplomacy” would directly impact the severity of any economic slowdown. “The recession risk is directly tied to the length of the uncertainty,” Gray said, adding that a swift resolution would be “positive for the economy and markets.”
As reported by the Financial Times, Gray’s comments make him the latest Wall Street executive to express concern over trade-related instability. His remarks follow those of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who recently urged the administration to reach “agreements in principle” with trading partners.
The market turmoil triggered by the White House’s tariff policy has cooled in recent days, aided by Trump’s temporary tariff truce and the start of talks with several countries, including Japan. However, uncertainty lingers as the administration maintains a baseline 10 percent tariff on all imports and has increased duties on Chinese goods.
Despite the broader market volatility, Gray noted that Blackstone sees opportunity amid the disruption. “In some cases, we are seeing prices start to reflect that and it can create opportunities for us to invest,” he said. Blackstone, which manages $1.2 trillion in assets, reported better-than-expected first-quarter results on Thursday, with distributable earnings rising 11 percent to $1.4 billion.
The firm also raised $62 billion in the quarter — its largest fundraising since 2022 — including $30 billion for its credit and insurance businesses and $11 billion from wealthy individual investors. Around 25 percent of Blackstone’s assets are now managed on behalf of individuals, up sharply from a decade ago.
Earlier this month, Blackstone announced a partnership with Vanguard and Wellington Management to launch funds targeting affluent investors, combining public and private market exposure — a move the firm sees as key to future growth.
