Fatih Birol, the Turkish economist and executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has issued stark warnings about the escalating global energy crisis as the Strait of Ormuz remains blocked, keeping millions of barrels of oil off the market. In an interview with El País, Birol described the situation as the “largest risk to energy security in history,” highlighting how the disruption is affecting not only oil and gas but also critical industries such as fertilizers, petrochemicals, and even helium production, with far-reaching consequences for inflation, economic growth, and global supply chains.
Birol, who has led the IEA for more than a decade, emphasized that governments initially underestimated the magnitude of the crisis. He explained that he had delayed public statements in the early stages, but once it became clear that policymakers did not fully grasp the economic and logistical implications, the IEA released detailed figures to underline the severity. Comparing the current scenario to historical energy shocks, Birol noted that the lost volumes of oil and natural gas surpass those of the 1970s oil crises and the supply shortfalls caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, making this crisis unprecedented in scale.
The IEA’s analysis shows that the most acute bottlenecks currently affect developing Asian countries, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. However, the ripple effects are likely to extend to energy-importing emerging economies in Africa and Latin America. Europe is also at risk, while some Middle Eastern states, such as Iraq, face serious economic repercussions due to their dependence on energy exports and weaker financial structures. Birol stressed that even developed economies could face rationing if the blockade at Ormuz persists for an extended period, noting that some energy-intensive industrial sectors in developing countries have already begun experiencing supply shortages.
Beyond immediate supply concerns, the crisis has caused damage to physical infrastructure in the region. Birol revealed that more than seventy energy facilities—including oil and gas fields, refineries, and related infrastructure—have suffered varying degrees of damage, with over a third severely affected. Even if the Strait of Ormuz were reopened tomorrow, recovery would be slow, and the global energy market would remain altered. He described the situation as a broken glass: “the glass has shattered, and it will be very difficult to return to its previous state.”
In response, the IEA coordinated the largest strategic oil release in history, deploying 400 million barrels in early March. Birol reported that the measure temporarily reduced prices by approximately $18 per barrel but stressed that it represents only 20% of total strategic reserves. The remaining 80% is preserved for future contingencies, with the IEA prepared to act again if necessary. While this step provided short-term relief, Birol cautioned that structural challenges remain, requiring broader solutions.
Looking forward, Birol predicts a long-term transformation in global energy strategies. He expects countries to diversify their sources of supply, reducing dependence on Middle Eastern oil and gas. Renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, will gain prominence, driven by both environmental and economic considerations. Electric vehicles are anticipated to expand rapidly, reshaping the transportation sector, while nuclear energy is likely to experience renewed investment and development. These shifts, he argues, will alter both commercial relationships and national energy strategies, leaving renewables, electric mobility, and nuclear power strengthened in the post-crisis era.
Birol’s analysis underscores the interconnectedness of energy security, geopolitics, and economic stability. The blockade of the Strait of Ormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil flows, has exposed vulnerabilities that affect every region, from developing nations reliant on imports to industrialized economies dependent on steady energy supplies. He warns that failure to address these vulnerabilities promptly could trigger inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and prolonged economic slowdowns across the globe.
The economist also highlighted that, unlike previous crises, the repercussions are not limited to energy markets. Industries that depend on petrochemical derivatives, fertilizers, and other critical raw materials are already feeling the strain, with knock-on effects for agriculture, manufacturing, and technology sectors worldwide. This integrated perspective, according to Birol, differentiates the current crisis from historical shocks and magnifies the urgency of a coordinated global response.
In the El País interview, Birol concluded with a message of cautious optimism. While the crisis is severe, it also represents a turning point for global energy systems. The combination of strategic releases, diversification of supply, investment in renewables, and technological innovation could ultimately lead to a more resilient and sustainable energy landscape. However, he emphasized that decisive action is required immediately to prevent widespread rationing and economic damage, particularly in vulnerable emerging markets.
As the world grapples with this unprecedented disruption, Birol’s warnings serve as both a diagnosis and a call to action. Policymakers, industry leaders, and international organizations must coordinate effectively to restore stability, mitigate long-term economic consequences, and accelerate the transition to more secure and sustainable energy sources. The unfolding crisis, captured in El País’s reporting, may ultimately redefine the global energy order, leaving enduring lessons for governments and industries worldwide.
The current scenario demonstrates that energy security is no longer a regional concern but a global imperative, and that resilience will depend on both immediate interventions and long-term strategic planning. Fatih Birol’s assessment provides a stark reminder that the energy landscape of the 21st century must adapt rapidly to geopolitical disruptions, technological challenges, and evolving market dynamics.
