Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decline by 0.4% in 2026, falling from the record level reached in the previous year, as higher energy prices and increased use of renewable power curb fossil fuel consumption, according to an international team of scientists.
The Global Carbon Project said emissions were expected to reach 38.2 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide this year, compared with the previous year’s record. However, researchers cautioned that the projected decline was insufficient to establish whether global fossil fuel emissions had reached their peak.
More than 140 scientists contributed to the report, which identified different trends in emissions from oil, natural gas and coal. While oil-related emissions are expected to record the largest decline, coal emissions are projected to increase, reflecting continuing reliance on the fossil fuel in parts of the global energy system.
Emissions from oil are forecast to fall by 1.9% in 2026, largely because of supply disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran. The disruption pushed energy prices higher, reducing demand and contributing to the projected decline in oil-related carbon emissions.
Natural gas emissions are also expected to decrease, although by a smaller margin of 0.3% compared with the previous year. In contrast, emissions from coal are projected to rise by 0.6%, indicating that reductions in oil and gas consumption are not being matched across all major fossil fuel sources.
The report also identified declines in projected emissions from the world’s two largest overall carbon dioxide emitters. China, the largest emitter, is expected to record a 0.9% reduction in emissions this year, while emissions from the United States, the second-largest overall emitter, are projected to fall by 1.3%.
Despite the expected annual decline, scientists warned against interpreting the figures as evidence of a lasting reversal in global emissions. They said a sustained reduction would require structural changes in energy production and consumption rather than temporary effects caused by disruptions to fossil fuel supplies and higher prices.
Glen Peters, a research professor at the CICERO Center for International Climate Research, said a single year’s decline could not establish that emissions had peaked unless it resulted from lasting changes.
“A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change,” Peters said.
Scientists involved in the report said the deployment of renewable energy would need to accelerate to place global carbon emissions on a more definite downward trajectory. The projected reduction in 2026, they indicated, should therefore be distinguished from a sustained decline driven by a fundamental shift away from fossil fuels.
The Global Carbon Project’s latest assessment shows that, despite the expected reductions in several major economies and the decline in oil-related emissions, global fossil fuel use continues to generate an estimated 38.2 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.
