Pakistan is preparing to deport nearly 900,000 Afghan refugees following the suspension of US foreign aid and the freezing of resettlement programs under former President Donald Trump’s administration. As reported by the Financial Times, analysts warn that this move endangers nearly 870,000 Afghan refugees, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis.
Hosting approximately three million Afghan refugees, Pakistan has been a refuge for those fleeing war and instability, especially since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021. However, the country’s interior ministry has issued a warning to Afghan Citizenship Card holders—identification that Islamabad began issuing in 2017—demanding their voluntary departure before forced repatriations begin on April 1.
A senior Pakistani diplomat, speaking anonymously, noted that the decline in international assistance was a significant factor in the decision to ramp up deportations. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the United States contributed 42% of the $100 million in aid that Pakistan received last year to support Afghan refugees. However, the Trump administration’s executive order on January 20 effectively halted nearly all foreign aid, including refugee assistance and resettlement programs.
Although legal challenges to these cuts are ongoing, both Western and Pakistani officials believe that funding levels are unlikely to be restored. Even with US support, last year’s international aid for Afghan refugees in Pakistan fell significantly short of the UN’s $368 million target. Qaiser Khan Afridi, a UNHCR spokesperson in Pakistan, stated that the funding freeze would “hugely impact” the agency’s operations, limiting its ability to respond to emergency situations.
Among those affected are over 20,000 Afghan refugees awaiting resettlement in the United States under special immigrant visas granted to those who assisted US and NATO forces. However, US Vice President JD Vance has expressed concerns about the vetting process, leading to further delays in refugee admissions. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently warned that if Washington does not accept these refugees by September, they will also be deported.
The US State Department maintains that it is in “close communication” with Islamabad regarding Afghan nationals in resettlement pathways. It has stated that special immigrant visa processing is ongoing, though affected individuals must arrange their own travel to the US.
Pakistan’s mass deportations began in late 2023, forcing over 800,000 Afghans to return, raising alarms over worsening humanitarian conditions. Many of those expelled include women and children who had been attending schools in Pakistan—education opportunities now denied under Taliban rule—as well as individuals at risk of persecution for their past association with NATO forces. Human rights groups, including Amnesty International, have documented reports of police harassment, night raids, and arbitrary detentions of Afghan refugees, including women and children.
Pakistan justifies its actions by citing a resurgence of violence in its border regions, blaming Afghan-based militant groups such as the Pakistani Taliban and the Balochistan Liberation Army for attacks within its territory. Relations between Islamabad and Kabul have deteriorated, despite Pakistan’s historical support for the Taliban during the US-led war in Afghanistan.
Taliban government spokesperson Suhail Shaheen criticized Pakistan’s approach, warning that using refugees “as a pressure tool” would only deepen mistrust between the two nations. Analysts, however, caution that Afghanistan is ill-equipped to handle the mass influx of returnees. With Western aid cut off and severe economic sanctions in place, the country faces a worsening crisis.
“The Taliban are saying, ‘bring it on.’ They don’t want Pakistan to have leverage over them,” said Graeme Smith, a senior consultant with Crisis Group. However, he warned that returnees were “walking into a real humanitarian disaster and an economy that cannot grow fast enough.”
