by Our Correspondent in Doha
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies are pivoting away from traditional security anchors in Tel Aviv and Washington and turning toward pragmatic engagement with Tehran. The shift, accelerated by recent military tensions between Iran and Israel, reflects growing disillusionment with U.S.-Israeli strategies and a recognition of Iran’s rising regional influence.
The recent Iran-Israel confrontation exposed vulnerabilities in Israel’s deterrence posture and served as a wake-up call for Gulf leaders. Tehran’s measured but effective use of precision strikes signaled a level of military maturity and strategic restraint that challenged old assumptions. “Riyadh now sees Iran as immune to coercion,” said a senior Arab diplomat. “Saudi security depends on direct engagement with Tehran—not Israel or a fading U.S. umbrella.”
Saudi Arabia’s emerging doctrine of “positive containment” marks a clear departure from past hostility. Rather than confrontation, Riyadh is exploring diplomacy, security coordination, and even economic partnerships with Iran. Efforts to normalize ties with Israel, once heralded as a historic breakthrough under the Abraham Accords, are now viewed as offering little strategic gain in a rapidly evolving regional context.
Across the Gulf, similar trends are taking shape. The UAE is expanding trade ties with Tehran, while Qatar and Oman are deepening diplomatic channels. Talks are reportedly in the works between Gulf states and Iran focusing on maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz and broader energy cooperation. The once-heralded anti-Iran coalition is eroding, and the vision of a unified front against Tehran is giving way to a more nuanced and multipolar reality.
This transformation is not driven by ideological shifts but by sober strategic calculation. The Gulf’s monarchies are prioritizing stability and self-interest over old loyalties, acknowledging Iran not as an isolated pariah but as a central player in the region’s security architecture.
The implications are profound. With the U.S. influence waning and Israel’s regional appeal dimming, the foundations of Pax Americana in the Middle East are crumbling. In its place, a new, multipolar Gulf order is emerging—one shaped by local power dynamics and built on regional terms.
