President Donald Trump has touted the existence of “massive oil reserves” in Pakistan, surprising industry experts and officials in the South Asian nation, which imports around 80% of its petroleum supply.
The claim, made as Trump announced a new trade deal with Islamabad that reduced tariffs on Pakistani goods by 10 percentage points, to 19%, has been met with skepticism. “Completely out of left field,” said an official at a state-owned oil and gas company, while another noted that “there is no mysterious, undiscovered oilfield that is going to put out 1bn barrels.”
The trade pact marked a diplomatic win for Pakistan’s military-backed government and army chief Asim Munir, which sweetened negotiations with offers linked to critical minerals and cryptocurrency. Trump said in July that Washington was seeking a company to spearhead resource development, though analysts warned of political instability, regulatory weaknesses, and high upfront costs.
“Pakistan’s resource deals with the Trump administration have an element of smoke and mirrors about them, trading off future promises for immediate advantages,” said Andrew Small, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
Pakistan currently produces about 66,000 barrels per day of crude—less than Vietnam and far below India. While a US Energy Information Administration study a decade ago suggested Pakistan’s Lower Indus Basin may contain up to 9bn barrels of shale oil and 105tn cubic feet of gas, consultancy Rystad Energy said these estimates were based on preliminary seismic data and remain “years away from commercial viability.”
Petroleum minister Ali Pervaiz Malik said the trade agreement could help attract a US oil major to an upcoming offshore bidding round and generate interest in 30 onshore blocks. But much of Pakistan’s reserves are thought to lie beneath Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, provinces wracked by insurgencies that have previously targeted foreign projects.
Skepticism remains high, with many Pakistanis mocking Trump’s remarks on social media, likening them to vats of vegetable oil used for frying samosas. Past optimism has also proven misplaced: in 2019, a deep-sea drilling project led by Exxon and Italy’s Eni raised hopes of vast reserves, only to be abandoned after finding water.
“There is no offshore gas or oilfield to develop in Pakistan today,” said former prime minister and petroleum minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi. “You can’t say we have massive oil reserves until they’ve been discovered. But if Trump is saying, let’s invest and drill more, that would be welcome news.”
