A groundbreaking unclassified war game examining a potential Taiwan conflict in 2028 has concluded that further U.S. nuclear arms expansion would have minimal impact on whether China resorts to nuclear weapons. This finding challenges growing calls among American experts for an enhanced nuclear arsenal, including tactical nuclear weapons, in response to China’s rapid modernization of its nuclear forces, according to a report by the Financial Times UK.
The tabletop exercise, conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in collaboration with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), analyzed scenarios where U.S. and Chinese commanders might consider nuclear use during a hypothetical war over Taiwan. It concluded that existing modernization plans for the U.S. nuclear arsenal are sufficient, and additional capabilities would not enhance deterrence.
Rising Tensions Amid China’s Nuclear Expansion
China’s nuclear arsenal, historically limited in scope and designed for retaliation rather than parity with the U.S. and Russia, is undergoing significant expansion. The Pentagon estimates Beijing could double its operational warheads to over 1,000 by 2030, up from more than 500 in 2022. China’s military has also diversified its nuclear delivery systems, including submarines, aircraft, road-mobile vehicles, and missile silos, reports the Financial Times.
Amid these developments, some U.S. experts advocate for deploying tactical nuclear weapons, such as submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCM-N) retired after the Cold War. Proponents argue these measures could address potential gaps in conventional munitions during a Taiwan conflict.
However, Eric Heginbotham, a Chinese nuclear expert at MIT and co-author of the war game report, countered this perspective. “The U.S. has 600-plus tactical nuclear weapons and is modernizing their delivery means,” he said, according to the Financial Times. The exercise showed no strategic advantage in deploying weapons beyond those already planned for modernization.
War Game Findings: Limited Utility of Nuclear Expansion
The CSIS-MIT simulation tested multiple iterations of a Taiwan conflict involving nuclear scenarios. Key findings included:
- Minimal Impact of U.S. Nuclear Build-Up: Teams playing China in the war game did not perceive the U.S. as constrained in its nuclear capabilities, even under current modernization plans.
- Trigger Points for Nuclear Use: China’s use of nuclear weapons was most likely when its forces faced defeat in Taiwan. This aligns with fears that Beijing may dilute its long-standing “no first use” pledge.
- Unpredictable Escalation: Escalation paths in nuclear exchanges were highly unpredictable, with some iterations ending in catastrophic outcomes, including the annihilation of major U.S. and Chinese cities.
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at CSIS and co-author of the report, emphasized the sobering implications: “Favorable outcomes were possible, but total victory was unachievable,” he said, as cited by the Financial Times.
The findings contrast sharply with a prior CSIS war game on conventional conflict, which suggested a decisive U.S. victory was the most likely outcome. Nuclear options produced far less optimistic results, with only five out of 15 iterations resulting in the withdrawal of Chinese forces from Taiwan.
Planning for De-Escalation
The war game’s authors urged proactive planning for diplomatic “off-ramps” to avoid nuclear escalation. Historical examples, such as the secret U.S. agreement to remove missiles from Turkey during the Cuban Missile Crisis, illustrate how concessions can provide adversaries a face-saving exit.
Cancian warned that a Taiwan conflict might not allow time for such negotiations. “That’s why it’s important to think through off-ramps ahead of time,” he told the Financial Times.
China’s Response and Global Context
China has dismissed U.S. concerns about its nuclear modernization, accusing Washington of using the issue to justify its own arsenal expansion. “It is the U.S. who is the primary source of nuclear threats and strategic risks in the world,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated in August, as reported by the Financial Times.
The CSIS-MIT exercise underscores the limits of nuclear deterrence and the unpredictable nature of escalation, particularly in a conflict as complex as Taiwan. As tensions rise and nuclear arsenals grow, the findings highlight the urgency of developing strategies that prioritize stability over escalation.
