Note from Sri Lanka Guardian Editorial Team
In 2024, South Asia experienced a year marked by turbulence and rising geopolitical tensions, shaping the region’s future trajectory. The ever-present conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir reached a boiling point, as both nations engaged in military skirmishes along the Line of Control (LoC). The mounting animosity was compounded by a relentless media war, each country accusing the other of instigating violence. For Pakistan, Kashmir remains the ultimate symbol of its unfinished political struggle, but India, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has shown no signs of yielding ground. The heavy militarisation of the border, coupled with numerous casualties on both sides, left the region dangerously poised on the brink of war, revealing the fragile stability of South Asia’s longest-running conflict. Despite diplomatic gestures, such tensions only highlighted the limits of peace-building and the ever-present spectre of regional instability.
Meanwhile, India held its highly anticipated general elections in 2024, which once again returned Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power. Modi’s victory, while not entirely unexpected, was a resounding endorsement of his brand of populism, which has dominated Indian politics for nearly a decade. However, beneath the veneer of electoral success lies a society increasingly divided along ideological, religious, and cultural lines. Critics argue that Modi’s continued rule represents a shift towards authoritarianism, with the erosion of democratic norms, suppression of dissent, and polarisation of the electorate. The question arises: is India still the world’s largest democracy, or has it become a mere shadow of its former self, where democracy is not so much exercised as it is manoeuvred?
Afghanistan, under the oppressive rule of the Taliban, descended further into a humanitarian crisis in 2024. The country remains a powder keg of political instability, with international aid organisations struggling to operate in a war-torn landscape. The Taliban’s grip on power has been brutal, with widespread human rights abuses and the systemic oppression of women. Yet, the situation is exacerbated by resistance groups operating in neighbouring countries, who cross borders to wage guerrilla warfare. These insurgents, often supported by Pakistan, continue to undermine the Taliban, keeping Afghanistan in a perpetual state of civil war. As the international community watches from the sidelines, one must ask: is there any hope for a peaceful Afghanistan, or has the cycle of violence become so ingrained that the idea of peace is now a distant mirage?
In Bangladesh, the political structure was shaken to its core in 2024, when the violence surrounding Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s regime reached unprecedented levels. The year saw the opposition forces, bolstered by massive protests, rise up in an attempt to topple Hasina’s administration. The ensuing chaos was nothing short of catastrophic, with hundreds killed in brutal crackdowns. Police and paramilitary forces, deployed to suppress the unrest, were accused of committing atrocities, including extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances. This brutal episode exposed the fragility of Hasina’s grip on power, raising uncomfortable questions about the very nature of democracy in Bangladesh. Is it truly a democratic process when the people must resort to bloodshed to remove a leader who refuses to step down?
India’s defence modernisation efforts in 2024 were further solidified as the country sought to enhance its military capabilities. With an increasing emphasis on advanced technology, India’s defence procurement plan included cutting-edge fighter jets, missiles, and air defence systems, aiming to secure its position as the preeminent military power in South Asia. This escalation in military spending, ostensibly a response to the growing threat from China and Pakistan, also reflects India’s global aspirations. But is India truly in a position to challenge the regional status quo, or is it merely an exercise in militaristic posturing, a signal of its dissatisfaction with the current geopolitical order?
On the northern borders, tensions between India and China continued to escalate throughout 2024. The months-long standoff at the Galwan Valley in 2020 left scars that have yet to heal, and the situation only worsened in 2024. Border skirmishes became frequent, as both nations continued to fortify their military presence in the disputed regions. Despite numerous rounds of diplomatic talks, China’s growing presence in the region—coupled with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—has created an increasingly hostile environment. Is this a reflection of a world where geopolitical ambitions outweigh any hope for lasting peace, or are we witnessing a gradual shift in the global balance of power, one where India’s position is becoming ever more central?
In Nepal, the increasingly cosy relationship with China took a more definitive turn in 2024. As Nepal signed several new economic and infrastructural agreements with Beijing, including new projects under the BRI, India’s regional influence appeared to diminish. Nepal’s increasing alignment with China was seen by many as a strategic move to secure more economic benefits, but it also raised concerns in New Delhi about the long-term ramifications for India’s position in the Himalayas. Nepal, once a traditional ally of India, now faces the uncomfortable reality of balancing two regional giants. Is Nepal’s pursuit of economic development worth risking its historical ties with India, or does this represent an inevitable realignment of global alliances in the face of economic necessity?
Pakistan, already mired in political chaos, faced further instability in 2024 as former Prime Minister Imran Khan made a dramatic return to the political scene. Khan, who had been ousted from office amid accusations of corruption, returned as a polarising figure, uniting opposition parties in a bid to challenge the incumbent government. His return sparked protests, which quickly turned violent, as military forces were deployed to quell dissent. The political crisis that ensued cast doubt on the future of Pakistan’s democracy. The military’s role in Pakistan’s politics remains as prominent as ever, and questions about the country’s true democratic nature persist. Is Pakistan truly a democracy, or is it merely a puppet regime, with the military pulling the strings from behind the scenes?
Pakistan’s growing partnership with China also took centre stage in 2024, with both nations continuing to deepen their strategic and military ties. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a hallmark of this relationship, saw major new investments, reinforcing the economic ties that bind the two nations. This strengthening partnership, however, has caused alarm in India, which perceives it as a direct threat to its regional supremacy. As China continues to expand its footprint in South Asia, it raises uncomfortable questions about the shifting geopolitical spectrum. Are we witnessing the rise of a new Sino-Pakistani bloc that could eclipse India’s dominance in the region?
India’s role in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) also became more pronounced in 2024, with New Delhi taking a leadership position in the alliance. Alongside the United States, Japan, and Australia, India worked to counter China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad, initially formed as a security partnership to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific, has evolved into a more robust military and economic alliance. As the alliance strengthens, questions arise: is this a necessary counterbalance to China’s dominance, or is it simply a proxy for the United States to assert its power in a rapidly shifting world order?
The humanitarian crisis caused by the military junta in Myanmar continues to have far-reaching implications in 2024. With millions of Rohingya refugees spilling into neighbouring Bangladesh, the already strained relationship between the two countries worsened. Myanmar’s brutal crackdown on its own people has been condemned by the international community, yet the junta remains defiant. The refugee crisis is not just a bilateral issue but a regional one, with its ripple effects impacting India and beyond. What does it say about the world when such atrocities are allowed to continue unchecked, and what responsibility does the international community bear in addressing this crisis?
Geopolitical tensions over the Bay of Bengal also heated up in 2024, as India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar jostled for control over maritime territories and resources. The discovery of significant oil and gas reserves in the region has only intensified the competition, leading to disputes over fishing rights and territorial boundaries. As these three countries seek to assert dominance over the Bay of Bengal, the potential for conflict grows. But is this a case of nations acting in their own self-interest, or is it a symptom of broader regional insecurity and the scramble for resources in an increasingly resource-scarce world?
Bangladesh, already dealing with political violence, faced a further blow in 2024 with an economic slowdown that coincided with political instability. The violence and repression accompanying the ousting of Prime Minister Hasina contributed to a drastic decline in foreign investment, and the country’s economic trajectory took a sharp downturn. Bangladesh, once seen as an economic success story in South Asia, now faces a grim future, with rising unemployment and inflation leading to widespread disillusionment. Can Bangladesh recover from this downward spiral, or is it trapped in a cycle of political violence and economic stagnation?
As Pakistan sought to strengthen its military capabilities, its operations in the tribal areas and along the Afghan border in 2024 became increasingly aggressive. Military actions against militant groups, some of which have historically been supported by the state, were intensified. These operations, while aimed at stabilising the region, have led to massive displacement and humanitarian concerns. The question remains: can Pakistan truly overcome its internal insurgencies, or are these operations simply a band-aid on a much deeper wound?
In Nepal, political uncertainty continued to plague the country in 2024, particularly regarding its federal structure. A growing divide between central and regional governments sparked protests, with ethnic and political factions demanding greater autonomy. The debate over the nature of federalism in Nepal, and whether the country can truly balance the interests of its diverse population, remains unresolved. As Nepal faces mounting pressure, the question is whether it can maintain its political integrity or if it is on the brink of further fragmentation.
These events, from violent uprisings to shifting alliances and deepening military tensions, reflect a region caught between competing global powers and its own internal struggles. South Asia’s future, as 2024 demonstrates, will likely continue to be shaped by these deeply ingrained conflicts, with the potential for further upheaval on the horizon. The only certainty seems to be that the region’s path forward remains uncertain, fraught with both potential and peril.
