Japan is on the brink of a demographic crisis, with experts warning that the nation’s rapidly ageing population and record-low fertility rate could eventually lead to its extinction. Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor at Tohoku University’s Research Centre for Aged Economy and Society, has raised the alarm, projecting that Japan could see its population dwindle to a single child in 695 years due to the ongoing decline in births.
Yoshida, who has been conducting demographic simulations since 2012, paints a grim picture of Japan’s future. His simulations, based on monthly data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, show a troubling trend: in April 2024, the number of children in Japan dropped by 2.3%, accelerating the country’s demographic decline and bringing the “extinction” scenario forward by a century. Yoshida’s calculations suggest that by 2720, there could be only one child under the age of 14 in Japan, signaling an irreversible decline.
The nation’s fertility rate, which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime, has reached an all-time low. In 2023, the fertility rate was a staggering 1.20, the lowest since government records began in 1947. Meanwhile, Japan’s population has been shrinking since it peaked at 128 million in 2008, and as of 2024, it stands at 123.7 million.
The demographic crisis is exacerbated by an increasingly ageing population. In 2023, Japan recorded just 727,277 births, more than twice as many deaths (1.58 million), resulting in a natural population decline of nearly 850,000 people. By 2024, Japan is expected to record fewer than 700,000 births, the lowest tally in the nation’s history, further pushing the country towards an uncertain future.
“The number of young people who cannot get married or give birth due to low incomes has increased,” Yoshida told the Yomiuri Shimbun. He emphasized the need for urgent social change, calling for a society where women and the elderly can continue to work and contribute to the economy. Without such changes, he warned that Japan could become the first country to “die out” due to a low birthrate.
In his dire predictions, Yoshida referenced the views of billionaire Elon Musk, who in 2022 tweeted that “Japan will eventually cease to exist” unless its birthrate exceeds its death rate. The country’s declining birthrate has become a hot topic for policymakers, but despite numerous efforts, such as promoting better work-life balance, gender equality, and policies to encourage marriage, the situation continues to worsen.
Among the government’s attempts to address the crisis is a new initiative launched by the Tokyo metropolitan government in 2024: a dating app designed to boost the birthrate. Users of the app must prove they are single and submit documents such as a tax slip and a pledge to marry. Despite these efforts, there remains a reluctance among many young people to marry or have children, often due to financial concerns and the pressures of Japan’s demanding work culture.
While some have suggested increasing immigration to fill labor shortages, Japan’s strict immigration policies, enacted after World War II, remain a major hurdle. However, in recent years, Japan has reluctantly allowed more foreign workers to enter the country. Government data released in 2023 revealed that the number of foreign residents in Japan had surpassed 3 million, now accounting for 2.66% of the population.
The ongoing population decline is compounded by a lack of solutions that appeal to the public, leaving experts like Yoshida increasingly concerned about the future. He has called for reforms to the Japanese legal system, such as changing the rule that requires married couples to share the same last name, which he argues could further exacerbate the population issue by discouraging marriage.
Yoshida’s warnings are not an isolated concern. Other experts have joined him in sounding the alarm about Japan’s demographic future, noting that the country faces a unique challenge unlike any other high-income nation. As Japan’s population continues to shrink and age, it faces a critical crossroads: without drastic change, the country may very well become extinct within the next several centuries.
Source: The Times UK
