India has expressed serious concerns regarding China’s announcement of a new hydropower project in Tibet that is set to be three times the size of the world’s largest hydropower facility, the Three Gorges Dam. The new project, which is being constructed on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, was revealed last month and is part of a broader effort by China to significantly expand its renewable energy capacity. The country plans to increase the share of renewable energy in its power consumption to 33% by the end of this year, up from 28.8% in 2020, according to The Financial Times.
India fears that the massive dam, which would be located near the Tibetan plateau’s border with the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, could have far-reaching environmental and geopolitical consequences. India’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, criticized the project, calling it a “mega project with a lot of ecological disturbances” and expressing concerns that it fails to take into account the interests of lower riparian states.
Shivshankar Menon, former national security adviser of India and chair of the Ashoka Centre for China Studies, echoed these concerns, pointing out that the dam’s location in seismic Tibet could result in severe downstream flooding or water scarcity. He also noted that the geopolitical dynamics between India and China, stemming from decades of mistrust, exacerbate the situation. Tensions between the two nations have escalated in recent years, including deadly border clashes in 2020. However, in October 2024, India and China reached an agreement to de-escalate military tensions and resumed military patrols along their disputed Himalayan border.
The Yarlung Tsangpo River, which is known as the Brahmaputra in India and the Jamuna in Bangladesh, plays a crucial role in the water supply for both India and Bangladesh. Experts like Neeraj Singh Manhas, an expert on transboundary rivers, worry that the dam could significantly alter the river’s natural flow, potentially disrupting access to water for agriculture, drinking, and other critical needs in both countries.
The new dam, which is expected to have a massive 60-gigawatt output capacity, will lie near the disputed region of Arunachal Pradesh, a point of contention between India and China since their 1962 border war.
While some experts have suggested that Tibet may not be the primary source of the Brahmaputra’s water supply, with rainfall contributing significantly to the river’s flow, others remain cautious about the potential environmental consequences of China’s growing network of dams in Tibet.
Chinese officials, however, have dismissed concerns about the ecological impact of the dam, stating that the project would not harm the environment or disrupt the water resources of downstream countries. In a statement released by China’s Foreign Ministry on Christmas Day, Beijing emphasized that the project would bring “more sense of gain, happiness, and security to the people of all ethnic groups in Tibet.”
Yet, activists continue to raise alarm over the cumulative environmental and human rights violations associated with the hundreds of hydropower projects built in Tibet since 2000. Malik Fida Khan, executive director of Bangladesh’s Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services, voiced concerns about the broader implications of such large-scale hydropower projects on the region’s ecological balance.
In response to China’s growing influence in the region, India has also announced plans to build its largest dam, the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project, in Arunachal Pradesh. With an expected output of 11 gigawatts, the dam is intended to mitigate potential flood risks arising from water releases, with local officials citing China’s unpredictability as a motivating factor for the project.
