South Korea’s Population Could Drop to Just 10 Million by 2136

The situation has become urgent, as research projects a dramatic decline in the population, with projections showing a drop from 52 million to just 10 million by the year 2136 if current trends continue.

1 min read
A representational image [Photo: Unsplash]

South Korea, long alarmed by its plummeting birthrate and looming demographic crisis, has seen a glimmer of hope as the nation’s birthrate begins to rise. Once dubbed the country facing “national extinction,” South Korea’s fertility rate had plunged to a staggering low of 0.72 in 2023, the lowest of any major country. However, recent efforts by local governments, particularly in Gwangyang, have yielded promising results, with the birthrate increasing by 15% in the last year.

The shift is being largely attributed to the government’s comprehensive package of incentives designed to encourage couples to marry and have children. These measures include subsidies for fertility treatments, free medical care, tax breaks, housing support, and even access to baby toys and breast pumps. In Gwangyang, a town of 154,000 people, couples who marry and start a family are provided with extensive support, resulting in a notable rise in both marriages and births. Last year, Gwangyang recorded a 26% increase in marriages and a 13% rise in births compared to the previous year.

This surge reflects broader national trends, with the total number of live births rising across the country, signaling a possible turning point in South Korea’s struggle against its low birthrate. The situation has become urgent, as research projects a dramatic decline in the population, with projections showing a drop from 52 million to just 10 million by the year 2136 if current trends continue.

While some critics question whether the recent uptick is merely a post-pandemic surge in marriages or if the government’s support programs are truly making a difference, many view Gwangyang’s success as a model that could potentially be replicated across the country. Local governments in other regions, such as Hwaseong, are also implementing similar incentive programs to encourage marriages and childbirth, including offering affordable housing and additional childcare resources.

This change is crucial for the country’s future, as the aging population threatens to overwhelm social services and leave a shrinking pool of young workers to support the economy. As noted by Gwangyang’s mayor, Jung In-hwa, the issue is not just about population numbers, but the sustainability of local communities and the economy at large. The government’s growing commitment to addressing the birthrate crisis, with a national budget of 52 trillion won (£28 billion) dedicated to combating low fertility, indicates that South Korea is serious about reversing its demographic trajectory.

Sri Lanka Guardian

The Sri Lanka Guardian is an online web portal founded in August 2007 by a group of concerned Sri Lankan citizens including journalists, activists, academics and retired civil servants. We are independent and non-profit. Email: editor@slguardian.org

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