A new United Nations report has painted a grim picture for Syria’s future, revealing that the war-torn country will require over 50 years to restore its economy to pre-conflict levels if current growth trends persist. The report, released on Thursday by the UN Development Programme (UNDP), warns that Syria’s economic recovery is a monumental challenge, with the country needing until 2080 to reach its 2011 economic size, assuming no drastic changes in growth.
Syria’s economy has been devastated by over 14 years of war, compounded by international sanctions and widespread infrastructure destruction. The UNDP report estimates that Syria’s economy is currently less than half of its pre-conflict size. Nearly nine out of ten Syrians now live in poverty, and unemployment stands at around 25%.
“Fourteen years of conflict in Syria have undone nearly four decades of economic, social, and human capital progress,” said the UNDP in its report, titled The Impact of the Conflict in Syria. According to the study, Syria’s economy has grown by an average of just 1.3% annually over the past seven years. Given this pace, the report warns that the country would need a tenfold increase in growth to restore its economy to pre-war levels in just 15 years—a highly ambitious target. A more realistic goal, it suggests, would be a steady 5% growth rate over the next 15 years to bring Syria back to its 2010 economic size.
The report emphasizes the urgency for large-scale investment in Syria’s recovery, particularly in areas like agriculture, infrastructure, and essential services such as healthcare and education. UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner stressed that “restoring productivity for jobs and poverty relief, revitalizing agriculture for food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for essential services” will be key to achieving long-term stability, prosperity, and peace.
The report also highlights the need for governance reforms and economic stabilization. Abdallah Al Dardari, the UNDP regional chief for Arab states, called for reforms to reduce Syria’s dependence on external aid and to foster a more resilient, self-sustaining economy. However, the scale of the task ahead means that Syria will require sustained international support, as well as significant structural reforms to rebuild its shattered economy.
In a parallel move, the Syrian government has unveiled plans to privatize key state-owned industries as part of its effort to revive the economy. In an interview with the Financial Times, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani outlined the government’s intention to prioritize the privatization of critical sectors such as oil, cotton, and furniture production. These reforms are aimed at attracting foreign investments and incentivizing Syrian expatriates to reinvest in their home country.
To address the country’s crumbling infrastructure, the government is exploring public-private partnerships to rehabilitate roads, airports, and railways. However, Minister Al-Shaibani acknowledged that many of these assets are in severe disrepair, making it difficult to find buyers. Despite the challenges, he emphasized that these partnerships would play a crucial role in rebuilding the country’s essential infrastructure.
As Syria faces the enormous task of rebuilding its economy and infrastructure, the UN report highlights the long road ahead for the country. With sustained international support, investments, and crucial reforms, Syria may slowly begin the process of recovery. However, the path to economic stability and prosperity remains uncertain and will take decades to fully achieve.
