Global trade entered 2025 on stable footing, but mounting challenges could disrupt future growth. According to the latest Global Trade Update from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), shifting trade strategies, protectionism, and geopolitical tensions are reshaping global commerce.
In 2024, trade reached a record $33 trillion—an increase of 3.7% from 2023—driven by developing economies and strong services trade. However, goods trade faces mounting uncertainty as governments impose new tariffs, subsidies, and industrial policies. Protectionist measures in advanced economies, particularly the United States and European Union, have triggered retaliatory actions, further complicating trade flows.
Supply chains are evolving, with businesses moving away from strict nearshoring and friendshoring strategies, opting instead for broader diversification to mitigate risks. While this shift presents new opportunities, it also increases trade complexity. Countries like Russia, Vietnam, and India have strengthened key trade relationships, while others, including Australia and the EU, are reducing dependence on traditional partners.
Trade imbalances have also widened, returning to 2022 levels. The U.S. trade deficit grew, China’s surplus expanded, and the EU moved into a surplus, driven by energy price changes. Meanwhile, sectoral growth remained uneven—agri-food, communications technology, and transport sectors thrived, while energy, apparel, and extractives suffered from weaker demand and policy shifts.
As 2025 unfolds, UNCTAD urges balanced trade policies and global cooperation to prevent economic fragmentation. While stimulus measures in China and easing inflation could support trade, ongoing protectionist trends and shifting policies pose significant risks. The choices made now will shape global trade resilience for years to come.
