As the war in Ukraine continues to devastate the region, Russia is betting on U.S. President Donald Trump to broker a peace deal that could bring an end to the conflict. However, despite Trump’s recent expressions of frustration, the Kremlin remains confident that the former president will deliver a settlement favorable to Russia. This move comes as Moscow gears up for a prolonged conflict if negotiations falter.
According to Bloomberg and sources within Moscow, the Kremlin is not overly concerned about Trump’s threat of imposing secondary sanctions on Russian oil for a lack of progress toward a ceasefire. While Trump’s rhetoric has fluctuated, from frustration to reaffirmation of his belief in Putin’s commitment to fulfilling any peace deal, the Russian government views the former U.S. president as its best hope for ending the war in Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov emphasized that Russia prefers diplomatic efforts over continued fighting, stressing the importance of mutual dialogue with the U.S. However, Russia is also holding out for more concessions from the U.S., including sanctions relief and a suspension of arms deliveries to Ukraine, as part of any potential peace deal. One recent example is the moratorium on Black Sea shipping attacks negotiated between the two countries in Saudi Arabia, which Russia made conditional on getting one of its state-owned banks reconnected to the SWIFT international messaging system.
Putin’s economic envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, recently spoke in Washington about the potential for better U.S.-Russia relations, which could include cooperation on matters like the Arctic and rare earth deposits. Russia has also pushed for an economic partnership deal with Ukraine that would give the U.S. control over future investments in Ukrainian infrastructure and natural resources. However, Trump’s willingness to push forward on Russia’s terms has been met with skepticism by many, especially considering the political fallout he could face for potentially weakening Ukraine.
While Russia seeks to leverage its position with economic promises, Trump’s ability to secure a peace agreement faces major hurdles. U.S. senators from both parties have introduced legislation calling for a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil if Putin does not engage in genuine ceasefire negotiations or breaches an eventual agreement. Despite this, the Kremlin remains defiant, with officials asserting that new sanctions would not significantly affect Russia’s economy but would harm nations reliant on Russian energy exports, including China and other developing countries.
While Russia is still making incremental progress on the battlefield, it has faced severe casualties, with estimates suggesting more than 1,000 Russian soldiers are killed daily. Despite these losses, Moscow is determined to maintain its military efforts, using the war’s momentum as leverage in its negotiations with Trump.
As the conflict drags on, Russia is counting on Trump to be the key to a deal that would halt the war—at least temporarily—while ensuring that Ukraine is left weakened and unable to pursue closer ties with NATO. However, as Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center pointed out, Russia remains prepared to continue fighting if negotiations with Trump ultimately fail to produce the desired results
