The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has sounded the alarm over a critical shortfall in global copper supply that could derail the world’s transition to clean energy and digital infrastructure. In its latest Global Trade Update, the agency declares copper the “new strategic raw material” essential to electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, smart grids, AI infrastructure, and data centers.
According to the report, copper demand is forecast to rise by more than 40% by 2040. Yet supply growth is lagging, hampered by low ore grades, geopolitical instability, and long mine development timelines that can stretch up to 25 years. To meet global needs, the world must invest $250 billion and develop at least 80 new mines by 2030.
“Copper is no longer just a commodity – it’s a strategic asset,” said Luz María de la Mora, Director of UNCTAD’s Division on International Trade and Commodities. “Its market exposes the power asymmetries that still shape global trade.”
Structural Challenges and Global Imbalances
Currently, over half of the world’s copper reserves are located in just five countries – Chile, Australia, Peru, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the Russian Federation – yet most of the value-added processing takes place elsewhere, particularly in China. China imports 60% of global copper ore and produces more than 45% of refined copper, dominating the supply chain.
This uneven distribution means resource-rich developing countries remain stuck at the bottom of the value chain, exporting raw copper without reaping the economic benefits of processing and manufacturing. The report highlights how trade tariffs further discourage local upgrading, with refined copper facing duties of under 2%, while finished products such as copper wires can face tariffs of up to 8%.
Copper’s Critical Role and the Recycling Opportunity
UNCTAD’s data show that copper use is dominated by wire production (63%), followed by tubes, sheets, and foil. Key demand sectors include building construction (26%), electronics and general consumer products (23%), and power and telecom infrastructure (17%).
With supply under pressure, recycling has become increasingly important. In 2023, secondary sources accounted for nearly 20% of global refined copper production, or 4.5 million tons. The U.S., Germany, and Japan lead in copper scrap exports, while China, Canada, and South Korea are top importers. UNCTAD emphasizes that recycling offers a strategic opportunity for developing countries to reduce import dependency, lower emissions, and build circular economies.
Call for Smarter Trade and Investment Policies
The report warns that copper is a test case for how global trade will navigate growing tensions, fragmented supply chains, and rising demand for critical raw materials. To close the supply gap and create more equitable growth, UNCTAD calls for smarter trade policies, targeted investment in local refining and manufacturing capacity, streamlined permitting processes, and regional value chain development.
“This is a moment where all countries can win – if trade is made to work for development,” said de la Mora.
As the race toward clean energy and digital transformation accelerates, copper’s role at the heart of this transition underscores the urgent need to rethink how global resources are managed and shared.
