In today’s Ethiopia, ruled by a US-backed strongman named Abiy Ahmed, things are unravelling. To begin with, approximately 75% of the country is outside of government control, with insurgencies raging. “Prime Minister” Abiy is, in reality, little more than the Mayor of the capital, Addis Ababa, with rebel armies positioned just 30 miles from the city’s outskirts.
On one side of Addis Ababa are the ethnic Amhara FANO (patriot) fighters; on the other side, the Oromo rebels. These two groups—arguably nations in their own right—are the largest ethnic constituencies in Ethiopia. This illustrates just how precarious the situation is for the embattled regime of Abiy Ahmed.
Inflation is rampant, electricity rates have recently doubled, and food shortages, soaring prices, and endemic corruption dominate daily life.
It is a particularly dangerous time to fall seriously ill in Ethiopia, as the nation’s doctors have gone on strike, demanding a living wage. 165 of the country’s top physicians have been arrested, and dozens of leading figures in the medical profession have fled—many just ahead of the secret police—taking refuge in neighbouring Eritrea.
Teachers, too, are on strike, many of them demanding wages they have never received. Indeed, some newly hired educators have reportedly never been paid at all, a reflection of the dysfunction within the remnants of the state apparatus.
The Abiy regime is deeply indebted, with scarce foreign currency reserves—coffee remains the country’s leading export. The government has struggled to meet its financial obligations, a recurring pattern since 1991. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has now extended yet another “emergency loan” of $260 million, piling onto Ethiopia’s already considerable debt burden.
Western financial institutions are once again discussing “debt relief for Africa”, aware that many indebted African nations remain unable to service even their interest payments. Ethiopia, as ever, is high on the list for such forgiveness—effectively bailing out yet again the West’s preferred strongman.
These financial institutions, having borrowed from their central banks for nearly two decades at near-zero interest, have made tens of billions of dollars in so-called “high-risk loans” to countries like Ethiopia, often at interest rates of 7–8%. It’s difficult to feel sympathy for them when they are asked to write off some of these debts—especially as they routinely deduct their “losses” from their tax liabilities.
What is currently keeping the Abiy regime afloat is military support from the United Arab Emirates. UAE-supplied Chinese drones and bombers have left a trail of death and destruction—largely among civilians. Yet even this has not stemmed the tide of rebellion. The encirclement of Addis Ababa continues to tighten.
You could be forgiven for being unaware of much of this, as very little of it has been reported in the mainstream Western media. After all, it’s the Horn of Africa—an area the world has grown weary of, synonymous with famine, disease, and conflict. Even the so-called “alternative” media have provided scant coverage of Ethiopia’s unravelling.
So don’t be surprised when—not if—the Western-backed regime of Abiy Ahmed collapses. That moment may come sooner than many expect.
What follows could be the disintegration of the Ethiopian empire (originally the Abyssinian Empire, renamed in the mid-20th century) into several independent nations: Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, Afar, among others. Today’s Ethiopia encompasses around 120 million people, including the Oromo—Africa’s largest ethnic group, numbering over 50 million, with the continent’s second most widely spoken indigenous language.
At the forefront of this uprising are the Amhara people and their “FANO/Patriot” forces, which have recently unified both their militias and political leadership. Amhara nationalism has grown so potent that the Ethiopian military has reportedly stopped training Amhara recruits, fearing they will desert with their weapons to join the FANO ranks—something that has been happening regularly.
One potential source of stability amid this turmoil may come from Eritrea—what some have called “the oasis of Africa”. As the saying goes, “All roads to peace in the Horn of Africa run through Asmara, Eritrea.” Once again, Eritrea may find itself called upon to advise, mediate, and shoulder the responsibility for helping forge a future of mutual respect and cooperation in this troubled region.
But the West—especially its financial elites—has little interest in a strong, united, and independent Horn of Africa, a region of immense strategic significance. Don’t be surprised, therefore, if Eritrea’s efforts to bring stability are met with another round of slander and vilification from the media and the powers that be. After all, in their world, no good deed in Africa goes unpunished.
