China’s manufacturing sector experienced its longest decline in more than nine years in October, as factory activity continued to falter under domestic and global pressures, Bloomberg reported Friday. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49, down from 49.8 in September, marking seven consecutive months of contraction. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a reading of 49.6.
While the non-manufacturing PMI, covering construction and services, inched up to 50.1, it was only marginally above the threshold separating growth from contraction, reflecting seasonal effects from the longer October holidays. Huo Lihui, a statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said that the slowdown in factory activity was partly due to the eight-day public holiday and the “increased complexity in global environment,” with both production and market demand falling for manufacturing firms.
The slowdown comes after heightened trade tensions with the United States, though a deal reached between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea this month offers potential relief in tariffs. Analysts warn, however, that even with the agreement, China’s final quarter of 2025 could see the weakest economic performance since the disruptive zero-Covid lockdowns in 2022. The output sub-index of the manufacturing PMI fell into contractionary territory for the first time since April, highlighting diminished production activity.
Domestic factors are also weighing on the sector, as households surveyed by China’s central bank expressed lower willingness to spend and increased pessimism about employment. While export growth has remained strong in 2025, much of it was driven by pre-tariff stockpiling, raising questions about sustainability under calmer trade conditions following the Xi-Trump trade truce.
Beijing has emphasized technology and manufacturing as strategic priorities for its next five-year plan, while pledging to increase consumption’s role in the economy. Officials also outlined intentions to take “extraordinary measures” to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies and tighten export controls, signaling a continued focus on industrial and technological self-reliance even amid a slowing economic backdrop.
