More than ten years after jihadi forces stormed the fabled city of Timbuktu, banning music, dancing and imposing sharia law, Mali is once again teetering on the edge of collapse. Fighters affiliated with al-Qaeda have surrounded Bamako, the landlocked nation’s capital, cutting off fuel supplies and choking daily life for its four million residents. What was once a fragile democracy backed by French troops is now a besieged military junta struggling to maintain control amid a deepening crisis.
As reported by the Financial Times, the blockade around Bamako has left the city in near paralysis. Fuel tankers from Senegal and Ivory Coast — the source of 95 per cent of Mali’s petrol — are being blown up, set ablaze or hijacked by insurgents. With fuel supplies vanishing, generators have fallen silent, schools have closed, and traffic has all but disappeared. Crowds occasionally cheer the few drivers who manage to reach the capital, but such scenes are rare moments of hope in a city running out of both fuel and patience.
The worsening siege is being led by two key groups — Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the Maçina Liberation Front (FLM). Their tactics have become increasingly sophisticated, according to analysts, as they enforce sharia law on rural communities, collect taxes from gold mines, and even broadcast propaganda in Bambara, Mali’s most widely spoken language.
The military junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, came to power in 2020 amid a wave of anti-French sentiment. His promise to restore sovereignty and security has crumbled as the insurgents have tightened their grip. Following the expulsion of French and UN forces, Mali turned to Russia for support, bringing in hundreds of mercenaries from the Wagner Group and later its successor, Africa Corps. Yet, despite this partnership, jihadist attacks have only increased.
In July 2024, a deadly ambush near the Algerian border killed 84 Russian and 47 Malian soldiers — a stark sign of the mercenaries’ limited impact. “That shows that the package Russia provided is not very reliable,” said Héni Nsaibia, senior analyst for West Africa at ACLED, in remarks quoted by the Financial Times. He added that the jihadis have grown steadily stronger since the arrival of Russian forces.
The crisis marks a major setback not only for Mali’s military rulers but also for Moscow’s growing influence across Africa’s Sahel region. Russia’s Africa Corps troops, estimated to number between 1,000 and 1,500, have proven unable to stem the insurgency. Analysts say the junta’s survival may now depend on negotiating directly with the Islamist groups — a move that would effectively legitimise their control.
The prospect of Bamako’s fall has alarmed regional and Western governments alike. “Should Mali fall under the control of jihadis, large swaths of territory could become a haven for international terrorism, similar to Afghanistan and Sudan in the 1990s,” warned Joe Siegle of the University of Maryland.
As fuel stocks dwindle and fear grips the capital, many Malians see little cause for optimism. One former government official told the Financial Times that the country was “collapsing before our eyes.” The official described the army’s growing despair: “A few months ago, officers said it was impossible for Bamako to fall. Now, when you ask them, they go silent.”
Once hailed as a model of democracy in West Africa, Mali now faces the grim possibility of becoming the first Sahelian state to fall entirely under jihadist control — a crisis that could reverberate far beyond its borders.
