Russia’s pipeline exports of natural gas to China are expected to rise by about a quarter this year, underscoring Moscow’s accelerating pivot toward Asia as it seeks new markets following the breakdown of energy ties with Europe. A source familiar with the data said the increase reflects higher flows through the Power of Siberia pipeline, even as the shift fails to compensate for the steep revenue losses caused by the collapse of Russian gas sales to the European Union.
According to the source, Russian energy giant Gazprom expects exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline to reach around 38.6–38.7 billion cubic metres this year, up from 31 billion cubic metres last year. The volume would exceed the pipeline’s originally planned annual capacity of 38 billion cubic metres, highlighting how close the route is to being fully utilised. Gazprom did not immediately respond to requests for comment, although its chief executive Alexei Miller has previously said supplies through the pipeline would surpass 38 billion cubic metres this year.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Russia has rapidly redirected most of its oil exports toward India and China as Europe, once its largest commodity market and a key source of revenue, severed trade links. Gas has proven far more difficult to reroute eastwards, however, due to limited infrastructure and protracted negotiations with Beijing. While oil shipments can be diverted by sea, pipeline gas requires years of planning and massive investment, constraining Russia’s ability to replace lost European demand.
During President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China in September, the two countries agreed to increase annual deliveries through the Power of Siberia route by an additional 6 billion cubic metres, lifting planned volumes to 44 billion cubic metres a year. Moscow and Beijing also reaffirmed support for the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, which could eventually carry up to 50 billion cubic metres of Russian gas annually via Mongolia from the Yamal gas fields in the Arctic. Despite political backing, the project’s implementation remains uncertain, with disagreements over the price of Russian gas continuing to stall progress.
Beyond mainland routes, China has also agreed to raise purchases of Russian gas delivered via a pipeline from Sakhalin Island in Russia’s Far East. Volumes on that route are set to increase to 12 billion cubic metres a year from the previously agreed 10 billion cubic metres, with operations expected to begin in 2027. Together, these projects underline the strategic energy partnership between the two countries as China consolidates its position as the world’s largest energy consumer.
Even so, the financial picture for Moscow remains bleak compared with the years when Europe dominated Russian gas exports. Russia’s economy ministry estimates that revenue from gas exports to China will be 30% to 40% lower than the value of gas sales to Europe between 2025 and 2028. At present, the only operational route for Russian gas into Europe is the TurkStream pipeline running under the Black Sea. Supplies through Ukraine, which had accounted for roughly 12–15 billion cubic metres annually in recent years, stopped at the start of this year after Moscow and Kyiv failed to renew a transit agreement.
Russian finance ministry data show that gas exports generated around 420 billion roubles, or about $5.3 billion, for the state budget between January and November. Total gas export revenues are expected to reach roughly 470 billion roubles this year, according to Reuters calculations. That figure is 71% below the record 1.63 trillion roubles earned in 2022, when European gas prices surged, and slightly lower than the 490 billion roubles recorded last year, underscoring how far Russia still is from replacing the lost European market.
