Rising instability in Africa’s Sahel region is likely to fuel new migration pressures on Europe next year, with Mali and neighbouring Burkina Faso emerging as key countries to watch, according to migration experts. There are also growing concerns that violence could spill over into relatively stable coastal states such as Senegal and Ivory Coast, potentially widening the scale of displacement.
“We may see more migration from Mali as well as neighbouring Burkina Faso next year, and there is a risk of violence spilling over into Senegal and Ivory Coast,” one migration expert said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “This is the region to watch.”
In contrast, Afghanistan has not produced the mass outward migration many had expected following the Taliban’s return to power. Instead, Iran and Pakistan have repatriated around 2.2 million Afghan refugees this year, while European governments are increasingly debating whether to engage directly with the Taliban to organise returns from Europe, despite widespread repression, particularly of women and girls.
Climate change continues to act as a powerful underlying driver of displacement worldwide. The UN refugee agency estimates that 250 million people have been forced from their homes over the past decade due to flooding, drought and extreme heat, adding long-term pressure to already fragile migration systems.
At the same time, European Union efforts to curb arrivals through agreements with neighbouring countries appear to be having a measurable impact. Under what Frontex describes as the “externalisation of border management,” countries including Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia and Turkey have received funding and political backing in exchange for preventing migrants from departing for Europe.
The effectiveness of this approach is evident in West Africa. Arrivals to Spain’s Canary Islands surged to about 47,000 last year but fell by 60 per cent this year after Mauritania received €210 million in EU funding to tighten controls on departures. EU member states are now preparing to accelerate repatriations from 2026 to a list of designated “safe” countries of origin, including Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, Kosovo, Morocco and Tunisia.
Libya remains the weakest link in Europe’s migration containment strategy. Despite years of EU funding for the Libyan coastguard, the country remains the departure point for around 90 per cent of the 63,000 migrants who crossed the central Mediterranean to Europe this year. The country’s political fragmentation has limited the effectiveness of enforcement, particularly outside western Libya.
Bangladeshis have emerged as the largest single nationality among arrivals this year, with about 22,000 entering the EU, most of them transiting through Libya. According to a Frontex source, many migrants purchase package routes involving flights to Egypt or Benghazi, often via Gulf hubs such as Dubai, allowing them to reach Europe within days. Increased flights between Dubai and Benghazi could further expand this route.
Libya is also hosting an estimated 311,000 Sudanese refugees who have fled the civil war at home, where the Rapid Support Forces militia has been accused of mass killings. While the UK has historically been a preferred destination for Sudanese migrants, UN sources say many Sudanese in Libya are currently staying put and monitoring developments in Sudan.
“Current observations suggest that many Sudanese nationals in Libya are closely following developments in their home country and may consider returning when conditions improve,” a UN source said, adding that crossings from Libya to Europe remain limited for now. Frontex analysts are more sceptical, warning that the conflict in Sudan is unlikely to end soon and that financial constraints, rather than intent, are limiting onward migration. They believe Sudanese migrants could rank among the top three arrival groups by 2027 if conditions change.
Migration routes within Libya are also shifting. While departures from western Libya toward Italy continue, sailings from eastern Libya to Crete have risen by 260 per cent during the first 11 months of the year. Analysts allege that Khalifa Haftar, who controls eastern Libya, has done little to halt these flows as a means of pressuring the EU for funding and patrol equipment, a tactic previously employed by Tunisia before securing substantial EU aid.
Looking ahead, Algeria is emerging as a critical new variable. The country became a departure point for migrants this year as routes elsewhere were blocked, with thousands sailing to Spain’s Balearic Islands. Algeria’s long southern border with Mali makes it a potential gateway to the Mediterranean if migration from the Sahel intensifies.
Whether Algeria cooperates with European efforts to stem departures may depend on broader diplomatic considerations, including its dispute with Morocco over Western Sahara. “How Algeria feels it is being treated internationally in 2026 could determine how seriously it takes border controls on its frontier with Mali,” one expert said, underscoring how geopolitics may shape Europe’s next migration challenge.
