A growing global shortage of memory chips is tightening the electronics supply chain and is likely to make smartphones and personal computers more expensive from 2026, according to new analysis by IDC. The consultancy links the problem directly to surging demand for memory used in artificial intelligence infrastructure, which is absorbing a growing share of global production and leaving consumer electronics manufacturers scrambling for supply.
IDC analysts say the pressure is already being felt across the industry. As data centers consume increasing volumes of DRAM, manufacturers of smartphones and PCs are being forced to compete for smaller inventories, at a time when chip prices have begun to rise. The result is higher production costs, which companies are increasingly unable to absorb, particularly in lower-margin product lines.
According to Francisco Jeronimo, IDC’s vice president for client devices, the emphasis on memory allocation has intensified in recent weeks. He notes that companies operating with thinner margins are especially vulnerable, as rising component costs leave little room other than passing increases on to consumers. IDC expects this effect to be most visible in entry-level and mid-range devices, where price sensitivity is highest and cost absorption capacity is limited.
Unlike previous semiconductor cycles, the current shortage is not primarily driven by a collapse in supply, but by a strategic reallocation of manufacturing capacity. Memory producers are shifting more output toward higher value-added products such as high-bandwidth memory and enterprise-grade DDR5, which are used in data centers and AI systems. This has reduced the availability of chips traditionally destined for consumer electronics, tightening inventories even among large suppliers.
IDC warns that when supply shrinks while demand remains strong, prices tend to rise first, followed by changes in product specifications. In a conservative scenario, the consultancy estimates that average smartphone prices could increase by around 8 percent in 2026, with the steepest hikes affecting lower-priced models. To cope, manufacturers are weighing whether to pass on the full cost increase or to revise device configurations, often by limiting memory and storage.
Experts caution that such compromises could have long-term consequences for users. As operating systems and applications demand more resources, reduced memory can lead to declining performance over time. Jeronimo points out that insufficient memory or storage is already a leading cause of smartphones slowing or freezing, a problem likely to worsen as software requirements continue to rise.
Major manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung are considered better positioned to navigate the shortage, thanks to larger cash reserves and long-term memory supply contracts that in some cases extend up to two years. Even so, IDC believes they are not immune. Analysts suggest that planned upgrades, such as moving flagship smartphones from 12 GB to 16 GB of memory, could be delayed due to cost and availability constraints, slowing the pace of technical evolution despite consumer demand for more powerful devices.
The outlook is even more challenging for PC manufacturers, particularly smaller brands. IDC projects that average PC prices could also rise by about 8 percent in 2026, while shipments could fall by as much as 9 percent in a more adverse scenario. Jeronimo reports that some executives have expressed doubts about their ability to survive sustained cost increases, with certain suppliers pushing through price hikes of 15 to 20 percent.
These pressures are colliding with a major PC replacement cycle driven by the end of Windows 10 support in October 2025. Corporate customers are reassessing their hardware fleets and accelerating purchases or migrations at a time when component shortages and higher prices are making negotiations more difficult, especially for large-volume contracts.
Industry experts see little chance of a rapid resolution. Expanding memory production requires billions of dollars in investment and years of planning, and manufacturers remain cautious amid uncertainty over how long AI-driven demand will last. IDC projects that global DRAM and NAND supply growth in 2026 will remain below historical averages despite strong demand, potentially prolonging the impact on prices and device specifications.
As a result, both manufacturers and consumers are entering a period of greater caution. With more frequent price adjustments and the possibility of constrained hardware configurations, the memory crunch tied to the AI boom is set to reshape the electronics market well beyond the short term.
